In Battles With Direct AFC Competitors, Jets Have Little Margin For Error
In the NFL, every game is important, which is why the league is so compelling to its massive audience. However, as Jets Head Coach Robert Saleh acknowledged last week in the run-up to his club’s Monday Night Football affair versus the visiting Chargers, certain games take on added gravity for those teams with postseason designs.
And since the Jets (4-3) have every reason to think in this moment that they’re one of those teams, you could argue that the Chargers game is at or near the top of the must-have contests on their remaining slate.
As a Jets fan, I am well aware from even last season that mid-year standings mean squat. Still, building a resume of wins over potential playoff rivals is a key to staying in the race. The AFC is loaded this season, so postseason slots could certainly boil down to tiebreakers such as head-to-heads and conference records. Counting Sunday’s results, the AFC is up, 31-18, over the NFC in interconference games. That computes to a .633 winning percentage, a one-sided decisiveness not reached by either conference since 2004. Translation: There will be some playoff-worthy AFC organizations who will be watching the tournament, which could easily include some trash NFC team at or even below .500, from their home screens come January.
Despite their surprisingly decent start against a tough schedule, the Jets were on the outside looking in going into the Week 9 games thanks to a 2-2 conference mark that was inferior to Cleveland’s 3-2. Based on the weekend results and the tiebreaker rules, a New York win on Monday would push them above Cincinnati into the final Wild Card slot and just a half-game behind AFC East-leading Miami.
First things first. Let’s be clear: It would be a mistake for the Jets to dismiss L.A. Though many folks like to say, “The Chargers are going to Charger” because of their recent history of pulling defeats from the jaws of victory, I believe they are too talented, led by quarterback Justin Herbert, to count out. L.A.’s 3-4 record includes three losses by a field goal or less decided in the last two minutes. They always seem to do this and they always seem to be in the mix at the end.
Herbert is ranked eighth in the NFL in rbsdm.com’s expected points added per play plus completion percentage over expected metric this season. He is capable of playing at an elite level on any given day. New York’s Zach Wilson, meanwhile, is the league’s worst qualifying QB. Just like they did in pundit-defying victories over Buffalo and Philadelphia, the Jets defense is going to have to perform Herculean tasks on Monday to mitigate such a disparity. That means forcing turnovers.
Except the Chargers have gifted just six giveaways all season, tied for the second fewest in the league. Opponents have (or should have) figured out by now that the formula for beating New York is simple ball security. Heck, the Jets needed a last-minute miracle to beat a depleted Giants squad that recorded minus-9 net yards passing—all because the Giants didn’t turn the ball over once.
L.A. likes to have Herbert throw the ball behind the line of scrimmage—only six teams do it more often—with running back Austin Ekeler targeted five times for 69 yards on such plays in last week’s whipping of the Bears, per ProFootballFocus.com. The Jets, with their bend-but-don’t break defensive principles and fantastic cornerback set, tend to concede such passes--according to Warren Sharp, running backs have produced 30.6% of the receptions against the Jets, the highest rate in the league.
Unlike with some other dink-and-dunkers like New England’s Mac Jones, however, Herbert can also stretch the field and use his legs to scramble out of trouble. Again, just because the Jets have established a precedent this season with their limiting of star QBs like Buffalo’s Josh Allen, Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes, and Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts, Herbert could still be a problem.
This matchup also features two head coaches brought up on the defensive side of the ball who might end up sharing the same fate if they don’t meet their mandates for the season. L.A.’s Brandon Staley trusts his analytics team more, some say to a fault, in his fourth-down decision-making while Saleh often is too trusting of his defense. I’m guessing they’re both far away from the happy medium. The other difference is that the Staley-directed defense has been abysmal this season, with the Chargers surrendering the highest yards allowed per pass attempt in the league.
Not that the Jets are guaranteed to be prepared to take advantage of L.A.’s soft pass defense. New York should feel fortunate it can find five healthy offensive linemen every week to keep Wilson from getting killed. It appears that rookie center Joe Tippmann will be back on Monday and guard Laken Tomlinson avoided catastrophe, but tackle Duane Brown has still not been elevated from injured reserve and the right guard position will likely be manned by either Max Mitchell or Billy Turner, both of whom normally play tackle.
And then there’s Wilson, who deserves some credit for helping keep the Jets afloat in the wake of the devastating Achilles injury to star QB Aaron Rodgers on the season’s fourth snap but is also the figurative loose cannon that is common among most NFL backups. He’s only thrown one interception in his last five games, but he’s taken 18 sacks in that span, fumbling five times.
The Jets have been pretty fortunate in their last two wins sandwiched around their bye week. Both opponents were one first-down conversion away from going into a victory formation. Only Hurts threw a terrible interception on a third down and the Giants bypassed going for a fourth-and-one in favor of a field goal attempt from a kicker with a bum leg--he missed.
Those are the types of late-game meltdowns the Chargers are known for. If the Jets can keep the game close in the fourth quarter, who’s to say a third time isn’t a charm, right?
But this is also the Jets, who seem to make their living on Big Teases. Losing a game to a direct competitor in a season where they don’t have much margin for error is right up their alley.
Prediction: Chargers 19 Jets 13