Improved Devils Will Take A Healthy Stride Forward--But Playoffs? Not Yet
Many NHL pundits believe that this will be the season where the Devils finally put all their young pieces together to make a major move up the Eastern Conference standings, with some even predicting their first playoff berth in five years.
Whoa, people.
Certainly New Jersey can improve upon last season’s miserable 27-46-9 record, with their 63 points the fifth-lowest total in the league. Their offseason, while not highly titillating due to All-Star forward Johnny Gaudreau’s odd decision to join Columbus in free agency, brought in needed veterans from winning programs like wing Ondrej Palat (Tampa Bay), center Erik Haula (Boston), defenseman John Marino (Pittsburgh), and goaltender Vitek Vanecek (Washington). How much the team improves, however, will depend on whether the issues that have plagued them in recent seasons have been rectified.
Specifically, this team has had awful goaltending, special teams, and injury luck. The latter factor can’t be controlled, but the Devils are still a small-ish team whose most indispensable players have a history of being sidelined for extended periods. It isn’t a good sign that center Nico Hischier, New Jersey’s captain, played one period of exhibition hockey two weeks ago, went to the locker room with what was initially diagnosed as “cramps”, and still hasn’t returned to practice because the actual malady was a hamstring injury. He was put on injured reserve for the purposes of Monday’s required 23-man roster, but your guess is as good as mine as to whether he can play in Thursday’s regular season opener in Philadelphia. Or any game thereafter.
Some level of optimism is indeed warranted. When healthy, Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt, and Hischier provide the necessary play-driving skills that put fans on the edge of their seats while defensemen Dougie Hamilton and Damon Severson are high-end puck-movers. The East, though, is very competitive and so many games are tight (60% are decided by one goal or a goal plus a late empty-netter, according to The Athletic). It doesn’t take much slippage in any one aspect to slide into another season of also-ran status.
So, how will the Devils fare this season? Here’s some predictions:
1) Hughes becomes first Devil to reach 30 goals since Taylor Hall’s magical MVP campaign in 2017-18
The Devils 2019 No. 1 overall pick would have surely done so last season if not for a pair of injuries that limited him to just 49 games. I’d predict that he’d be the first to net 40 since Zach Parise in 2008-09 but my crystal ball is fuzzy as to whether Hughes will suit up for 60 or 70 games this season. Whenever he’s on the ice, though, he’s a threat to score. He could always create space to get to high-danger scoring areas with his beautiful skating but—not that I take anything out of preseason action—it sure looks like his shot has gotten exponentially better in both power and accuracy. He’s worth the ticket price no matter where the Devils stand—just be sure he’ll dress for the game.
2) Recurring item—the Devils will lag in team save percentage
My forecasts these last few years have always included this and I haven’t been wrong yet. Since 2010, the Devils have been mired in the bottom half of the league’s team save percentage rankings in all but two seasons, including last season’s dreadful 31st-place .881 mark. Obviously, losing goalies 1A (Mackenzie Blackwood) and 1B (Jonathan Bernier) to injuries, which forced the organization to scrape the bottom of several barrels to find bodies to put between the pipes, played a major role in their deficiency. However, it’s not like Blackwood was lights out in the 25 games he did play, posting an ugly minus-11.03 goals saved above average, which ranked 50th among the 57 NHL goalies with at least 20 games played, per NaturalStatTrick.com. Vanecek was closer to league average (placing 31st) which means that the expected improvement for this season will be fairly marginal. As such, the Devils will continue to rank in the bottom quartile of the league in save percentage for 2022-23.
3) Lack of net-front presence continues to drag power play
For a short stretch last season, the Devils often inept power play actually provided some, um, power. The impetus was when they stuck big fourth-line winger Nathan Bastian in front of the net. Even when he couldn’t deflect in shots from the point or bang home rebounds, he still took away the opposing goalies’ eyes, leading to several “screen assists” that didn’t register on the scoresheet. Unfortunately, Bastian’s work only helped New Jersey move ahead of four other teams in power play efficiency, which was partially negated by a league-high 14 shorthanded goals against. This season, it appears Devils Head Coach Lindy Ruff hasn’t learned a damned thing about why his club stunk with a man advantage, because he’s been loading the units with similar perimeter-oriented players. Granted, it was preseason action, but did we really need to see Tomas Tatar play alongside Hughes, Bratt, and Palat? My forecast shows that the Devils will post a bottom-half power play which, given the talent at Ruff’s disposal, is a massive underachievement.
4) Ruff is fired in January
Devils General Manager Tom Fitzgerald can only hold off the fan base’s wrath for so long. Ruff should have been axed after last season’s debacle by merit, yet the plethora of injuries seemed to gift him a mulligan. This season, the strength of the Devils’ schedule shows up in the second half, which means that the team had better get off to a strong start. When they scuffle through the next few months and then look noncompetitive against a string of top teams in early January, especially during a home loss to the Rangers on January 7, Fitzgerald finally pulls the plug and elevates new assistant Andrew Brunette behind the bench. Once again, it’s too late to save the season.
5) Devils trade Severson in advance of deadline
I’ll give Severson credit for a fantastic preseason that should set him up for a hell of a run towards a new contract as a free agent next summer. Unfortunately, it would be salary cap malpractice for the Devils to pay Severson his fair worth—never mind his marketplace value—when they’re committed to Hamilton, Marino, and 2022 No. 2 overall selection Simon Nemec on the right side for multiple years going forward. With the playoffs too far out of reach on March 3, Fitzgerald receives a premium for a top-four d-man despite the expiring contract, ending Severson’s nine-plus season tenure, the team’s longest. Lefty defenseman Ryan Graves, also a pending unrestricted free agent, is extended at about a $4 million AAV.
2022-23 Prediction: 38-33-11, 87 points (no playoffs)