If Marks Opts To Hold Onto Harden Past Trade Deadline, He’d Better Fix Nets’ Roster Imbalance...Or Else
At a 2018 preseason Celtics fan event, Kyrie Irving, a free agent after that season, told the crowd, “I plan on re-signing here.”
You know what happened nine months later—he teamed up with good friend Kevin Durant to join the Nets, leaving the Celtics high and dry with nothing to show for a perennial All-Star.
So when James Harden, according to insider reports, recently offered comfort to the higher-ups in Brooklyn’s organization that he intends to extend his deal after this season and not bolt elsewhere, like Philadelphia, in free agency, bear in mind that human beings have the right to change their minds.
It makes for a tricky situation for Nets General Manager Sean Marks with less than 36 hours to go before the NBA trade deadline as of this writing. His injury-depleted club is reeling from nine consecutive defeats, including a third straight blowout loss on Tuesday versus visiting Boston, 126-91. You can’t call this panic time when you have a superstar like Kevin Durant expected to return from his MCL strain in the coming weeks, but it’s awfully close.
So does Marks take what he can for Harden now, with everyone’s focus on disgruntled Sixers All-Star Ben Simmons as the featured compensation to avoid a repeat of the Celtics’ fate with Irving? Or does he roll the dice and pray that the Nets’ walking wounded—besides KD, Harden, Joe Harris, LaMarcus Aldridge and Nic Claxton were all sidelined for Tuesday’s contest while Irving was ineligible due to his refusal to get the COVID-19 vaccine—return in time to right the ship for the playoffs, where the full group would be formidable no matter the seeding or opponent.
The Nets’ problem with the latter, though, is that their depth is significantly weaker than last season’s to the point where one major absence—be it an injury or even Irving’s continued obstinance that would keep him out of home games (New York State’s reported walkback of mandates does not automatically apply to New York City)---would be tough to overcome in a playoff series.
If this abominable stretch has taught us anything, it’s that Nets Head Coach Steve Nash has few reliable complementary options. Harris and Aldridge, when healthy, plus Patty Mills offer offensive firepower, but they are defensive minuses, while the conglomerate of Bruce Brown, DeAndre’ Bembry, James Johnson, Blake Griffin, and Claxton don’t have to be guarded outside the paint. Boston managed to hold Brooklyn to 50 points in 2.5 quarters while committing only three fouls on Tuesday because no one but Mills and rookie Cam Thomas was a serious threat to score with the basketball in their hands. And let’s not overstate those players’ defensive impact—against a starting five of Griffin, Mills, Brown, Bembry, and rookie Kessler Edwards, Boston jumped out to an incomprehensible 28-2 lead after seven minutes.
Even if they were indeed defensive stalwarts, that’s still way too many guys in the non-floor spacing category to carry into an NBA season where shooting is paramount. Marks overcorrected when he evaluated last season and saw a team that might have been too defensively deficient to win a championship, though we’ll never know how much further than the second round the Nets would have gone if not for the injuries to Harden and Irving that were too big of a handicap in their seven-game loss to Milwaukee.
Spacing was an issue before the injuries and losses mounted, as Brooklyn had struggled mightily when facing other top teams. The clogged paints this season have affected Harden the most, as he’s converting just 54.4% of his attempts from inside the restricted area this season (he was at 63.2% in 2021), per NBA.com. Yeah, the refs and his hamstring injury recovery have played a role in his inconsistencies this season, but the poor spacing has been reportedly eating at him and possibly contributing to him considering other destinations as a pending free agent.
Therefore, in my view, if Marks is really going to risk it all on this season by keeping Harden, he has to show The Beard he is serious about winning it all--now. Marks absolutely cannot come up empty before the deadline in terms of improving this roster. Unlike last season, he can’t wait on the buyout market because there are so many more teams now who can compete with the Nets’ claim for supremacy when recruiting potential targets.
Virtually everyone other than the Big 3 (though I’d dump Kyrie if it were possible) has to be on the table, especially Harris, who hasn’t played since injuring his ankle on November 14 and had a setback in his surgery rehabilitation. The NBA’s reigning three-point champ is the only Net with a contract at a value (approximately $17 million, then two more seasons averaging about $19 million) that can bring back a player worthy of inclusion in a playoff rotation.
Marks doesn’t have much else to play with, since he pretty much emptied his asset cupboard last year in acquiring Harden from Houston, parting with Jarrett Allen, Caris LeVert, and the whole boatload of first-round picks. Whatever else Marks has left at his disposal—Mills, their 2028 first-round pick, trade exceptions, young players like Claxton and their four rookies, including Thomas—should be added to sweeten any deal, even if it’s a bit of an overpay.
Though Brooklyn missed out when Portland made Robert Covington available, a few other names I mentioned in a prior post that could be candidates to help with the Nets’ shooting woes include Harrison Barnes (Sacramento) and Eric Gordon (Houston). One report had the Nets investigating Detroit’s Jerami Grant, who has seen his three-point efficiency decline over the last two seasons but could have a Jeff Green-like resurrection playing alongside far superior players here. Surely, Marks’ radar extends beyond my obvious periphery.
The last thing this club needs is another non-shooter like Simmons, no matter his defensive prowess. It could work if he were the only one on the court, but given what we’ve seen these past few weeks, that probably won’t be the case here, even when the team gets healthier. That’s why, according to reports, the Nets, through so-called “back channels”, are trying to convince the Sixers to throw in guards Tyrese Maxey and/or Seth Curry in any deal for Harden.
All along, though, I’ve heard that Sixers General Manager Daryl Morey, despite his overt fondness for Harden stemming from their Houston days, wouldn’t bite on such a fair package before the deadline. The organization seems to think, through tampering or not tampering, that they have a good shot at landing Harden in the offseason, either through a better deal in a sign-and-trade or by offloading the Simmons and Tobias Harris contracts first and then inking Harden with salary cap space without needing to compensate Brooklyn at all.
I don’t know what Harden is really thinking now and I certainly don’t know the odds of whether such thinking will be different in five months. The consensus view is that he wants to go where he can win and Brooklyn is flunking their audition with how this season has played out. It’s not over, of course, but I believe the risk is real enough for Marks to consider a preemptive trade—because he too can’t be sure of anything.
In this game of chicken, though, Marks doesn’t have to blink first. But if he doesn’t fix the underlying problem with the rest of the roster, he might as well keep his eyes shut for good because losing Harden for nothing will go down as a fiasco in line with the infamous 2013 Kevin Garnett/Paul Pierce gambit.