Hyped Wilson vs. Darnold Matchup Will Be Decided In Trenches
The NFL doesn’t really have a sense of humor. It only seemed that way when it announced the league schedule back in May.
Knowing full well that a month earlier the Jets traded one-time savior quarterback Sam Darnold to Carolina and drafted a new hope in Zach Wilson, the league opted to have the two teams meet on Opening Day this Sunday.
Hence, the New York hype machine is in full swing, ready to determine once and for all whether or not this woebegone franchise made the correct decision.
Other than the folly of making such a statement based on one game, in reality, a lot of what will go into he success or failure of each QB will be out of their control. Specifically, this game, like so many others, will be won or lost in the trenches.
Darnold, whom the Jets chose with the third overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, actually got better when throwing under pressure last season, cutting in half his percentage of turnover -worthy plays in the face of heavy pass rushes, as measured by ProFootballFocus.com, but he still wasn’t very good, ranking 26th in completion percentage among the 30 QBs with at least 100 pressured dropbacks. As much as he’s lauded for his ability to make “unscripted plays” by using his legs to buy more time, he had more than his fair share of boneheaded decisions while under duress in his three seasons in New York.
The key for Gang Green’s defense, then, will be to generate push up the middle with Quinnen Williams and Sheldon Rankins. In that regard, the Jets caught a break with the Panthers putting guard John Miller on the COVID-19 list, leaving them with an interior consisting of Matt Paradis, Dennis Daley, and familiar face (through our nightmares) Pat Elflein, all of whom are coming off uninspiring seasons, to say the least.
The flip side is that if the Jets don’t generate pressure on Darnold, wide receiver Robby Anderson will have a field day blowing the top off the defense. He’ll be flanked by the very capable D.J. Moore while star running back Christian McCaffery will be frothing at the mouth after an injury-plagued 2020 campaign. If his line holds and he still can’t get the job done, Darnold will have no excuse (not that he’s using any, to his credit) for his failure to grow in New York.
Wilson, on the other hand, is untested. New York’s second-overall pick in April’s Draft was kept clean for most of his last college season at BYU and you can toss out the preseason numbers (4-for-6 for 53 yards with no turnover-worthy throws under pressure, per PFF) that were produced against opposing defenses comprised of backups. His first game will come at him pretty fast, and I believe that the concerning reports from the Jets’ joint practices with the Packers and Eagles will probably be more indicative of what we can expect on Sunday.
In those reps, Wilson was said to be consistently swarmed under the heat of the rush, particularly from the edges. That tackles Mekhi Becton and Morgan Moses were very good (1 combined pressure allowed in 22 pass plays) in the two preseason games they played is irrelevant; they both reportedly struggled throughout training camp in matchups with starting-caliber defenders.
Moses will have the more difficult assignment on Sunday, facing Panthers edge rusher Brian Burns, who led the team with nine sacks last season while boasting the eighth-highest pressure percentage (8.5%) among 91 players at this position with at least 200 pass rushes, per PFF,
The Panthers were not a heavy blitz team last season, with pro-football-reference.com ranking them 24th in the league with a 24% blitz rate, but they added linebacker Haason Reddick in free agency this offseason. Reddick registered 12.5 sacks with an 8.9% pressure percentage in 2020 for Arizona, so it would be foolish not to think he’ll be coming after Wilson a ton on Sunday.
That will mean the left side of the Jets’ offensive line, manned by Becton and guard Alijah Vera-Tucker, who missed all three preseason games with a pectoral injury, will be tasked with executing all the proper protection adjustments without leakage, a tall order for a sophomore and a rookie, respectively.
Like several of the Jets’ starters on the field, offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur will be making his professional debut in his role. Since, again, the preseason is meaningless, we won’t know how he’ll ensure Wilson’s protection until we see it on Sunday. Ironically, Chris Herndon was graded by PFF as the league’s top pass-blocking tight end (minimum 50 pass blocks), but he was dealt to Minnesota on September 1. New starter Tyler Kroft was also very good in pass protection the last two seasons in Buffalo, but he was rarely used in that capacity (23 times in 10 games last season).
We do expect that the Jets will utilize the running game to a greater extent than would be optimal (see prior column) because it will surely expose Wilson to third-down pressures he may be seeing for the first time. That means that if the Jets are going to have any success against the Panthers defense on Sunday, they’re going to have to put it all on their line.
Prediction: Panthers 33 Jets 20
(Note: I’ll be heading down to NC for the game and will report back next week. Happy Opening NFL Day!)