Hall Not In Same Class As 2022 Mates When It Comes To Jets Extension Priorities This Offseason
Recently axed General Manager Joe Douglas hopes his Jets legacy will be the haul he picked during the 2022 NFL Draft. Armed with two picks in the top 10 and four picks through No. 38 overall in the second round, Douglas batted 1.000. Cornerback Sauce Gardner, wide receiver Garrett Wilson, edge rusher Jermaine Johnson, and running back Breece Hall have already all panned out to meet or exceed expectations.
Of course, Douglas will be remembered for failing to nail the Head Coach/Quarterback positions that are the foundation of any NFL team, thereby wasting the rookie contract years of his 2022 class, not to mention the time, money, and energy of Jets fans tortured by over a decade of teases. Gang Green went 7-10 in the group’s first two seasons and has plummeted to 3-10 in 2024 in advance of Sunday’s contest at Jacksonville.
Once the season mercifully concludes after three more games, all four players become extension eligible. Gardner and Wilson play premium positions and will undoubtedly desire premium deals, especially if the Jets hope to convince them to stick around this losing environment for the long term. Johnson, unfortunately, tore his Achilles in Week 2; his new contract will probably have to wait until the organization sees how he recovers next season.
And then there will be the discussions on Hall, for whom the Jets traded up with the Giants on Draft Day to nab him with the No. 36 overall pick. Running back decisions can be tricky, even over one with Hall’s home run capability.
Just look at the back and forth from the last offseason with Saquon Barkley. With the running back entering the MVP conversation this season, the consensus opinion is that the Giants royally screwed up by letting Barkley fly to the Eagles as a free agent, and that’s why his former team stinks this season.
That’s not quite accurate. The Giants are averaging more rushing yards per game with a higher average yards per carry this season than they did in 2023 with Barkley suiting up for 14 games. New York already has one more rushing touchdown than they did all last season. No, the team is an abomination because they have gotten lousy play from their QBs and the offensive line’s pass protection has been utter trash. Their biggest blunder was committing zillions to QB Daniel Jones after one playoff win in 2022.
The Eagles, meanwhile, boast ProFootballFocus.com’s No. 1 rated offensive line and have a dual threat QB in Jalen Hurts. So of course Barkley, with all his innate talent plus those around him, was going to shine.
While I’m not going to minimize the explosive threat Barkley and Hall pose to NFL defenses, the general rule is that running backs are a function of the blocking in front of them. For all of Hall’s gifts, the Jets had only two games this season with a higher success rate on runs, as defined by rbsdm.com, than they did in last week’s 32-26 overtime loss in Miam with rookies Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis sharing the load in place of the sidelined Hall. One of them was the blowout debacle in Arizona on November 10 that saw Hall get a mere 10 carries.
Is New York’s 31st-ranked rushing attack all Hall’s fault? Of course not, though it seemed like he went down a little too easily in the first half of the season. Per ProFootballFocus.com, he was credited with eight missed tackles forced in the first seven games, the fourth fewest among the 34 backs with at least 50 carries to that point, per PFF. He broke 19 tackles in his last five games before a knee injury kept him out on Sunday (Note: Hall has yet to practice this week, which doesn’t bode well for his availability against the tanking Jaguars). That improved fortitude—and his breakaway ability--has enabled Hall to get into positive territory in the NFL Next Gen Stats yards over expected category—he’s now up to 24th in the league at 0.24 yards per carry.
But it’s not like Allen and Davis have been posting superior yards over expected numbers this season either—despite Allen’s short yardage prowess, he’s well underwater on the year, with only four among the 46 qualified running backs posting a worse average per carry. Davis broke off a nice 17-yard touchdown run in Miami, but NFL Next Gen Stats credited him with a total of 5 YOE on the day.
Still, the Jets showed last week they can run a functional offense no matter who the back is. All three can run to the scheme, catch passes out of the backfield (though the 10 drops between Hall and Allen are concerning), and understand blitz pickup responsibilities. Jets Offensive Coordinator Todd Dowling went out of his way at Wednesday’s media session to praise Allen for getting his helmet on free rushing 300-pound Dolphins lineman Calais Campbell to give Aaron Rodgers time to hit Wilson with a 42-yard big play in the third quarter.
The pending question then is whether the Jets should rush to extend Hall along with his fellow classmates. Remember: Since Hall was a second-round pick, his contract doesn’t include a fifth-year option and, as a player with four NFL seasons under his belt, he is slated to be an unrestricted free agent after next season.
Hence, there’s a little more urgency. The organization isn’t quite where the Giants were with Barkley because Hall is under team control for his final contract year in 2025 and the Jets have franchise tags at their disposal thereafter. However, this club has seen plenty of players hold out in the Woody Johnson era, even when under contract, so nothing is off the table in terms of prospective disorder.
My advice to the new GM would be to focus on the bigger issues, like getting the HC/QB marriage right and then paying Wilson and Gardner at near market setting levels for those positions. Hall, like many good running basks in this era of football, is just not a priority.
Prediction: Jets 20 Jaguars 17