Fans Irate Over Jets’ Pass-Heavy Play Calls Should Save Some Vitriol For Inept Running Game
There is no doubt that Joe Flacco, outside of a fluky two minutes in Cleveland, has not been a very good quarterback for the New York Jets in place of injured starter Zach Wilson during their 1-2 start to the season. He ranks 27th among the 32 QBs in rbsdm.com’s composite expected points added per play/completion percentage over expected metric.
For those expecting Wilson, who, according to Jets Head Coach Robert Saleh, is expected to start in Pittsburgh on Sunday barring “a setback” in his surgically-repaired right knee, to right the ship, understand that he finished dead last in that same category in 2021 among the 37 QBs with at least 200 plays. By a lot. Wilson also hasn’t had a live rep since he took a wrong turn on a scramble during the preseason opener in Philadelphia. His one other possession in that contest ended with an unsightly interception. As the New York Post blared, don’t expect Wilson to be the Jets’ savior.
Since quarterback is the game’s most important position, it’s understandable why many Jets fans bemoaned Flacco’s flaws, especially his immobility in the pocket. The loudest complaints are why the Jets had him pass a league-high 155 times in three games. On its face, it seems nonsensical. “Run the ball!” is the loudest refrain.
Well, I’m sure Offensive Coordinator Mike LaFleur would LOVE to call more handoffs, only the Jets haven’t been very successful on those either. It’s not like they didn’t try again in last week’s 27-12 loss to the visiting Bengals. They called 7 runs versus 6 passes on first downs prior to going into a two-minute drill while trailing, 20-6 in the second quarter. Want to know how many of those seven handoffs gained more than three yards? Two.
Where is the fans’ vitriol on this matter? Per rbsdm.com, only the Bengals have had a lower success rate on first-down runs in the first half this season. Since running backs Michael Carter and Breece Hall have had a couple of longer gains, the team’s EPA per play ranks a tad higher (26th), but the data shows that those run calls have put New York in second-and-long after about three out of every four first-down handoffs.
Fans admire Carter’s ability to make defenders miss (he’s 12th in the league with 9 forced missed tackles, per ProFootballFocus.com), but it hasn’t really yielded much of a return. Since he’s only averaging 2.7 yards after contact, he’s moved the chains with runs just four times in three games, the same as Hall. Only two backs with at least 20 carries have fewer runs resulting in first downs.
Carter, a 2021 fourth-round pick, and Hall, for whom Jets General Manager Joe Douglas traded up to select at No. 36 overall in the 2022 NFL Draft, are young enough and talented enough to hold some rope before they are pinned with all the blame. So let’s get into the offensive line, whose abominable pass protection woes have obscured the mess they’ve put the team in with their lousy run blocking.
New York is ranked 25th in the league according to PFF’s run blocking grading standards, but I wonder how much lower they’d be if not for Alijah Vera-Tucker, the NFL’s highest-graded guard (minimum 25 run block snaps). In any event, offensive line is a weak-link system, so having Laken Tomlinson, Douglas’ highest-priced free agent acquisition this past offseason ($13.9 million cash payout in 2022) placing last in the same class isn’t ideal. Tackles George Fant, now on injured reserve, and rookie Max Mitchell haven’t exactly been road graders either. They are ranked 55th and 54th, respectively, among the 68 tackles with at least 25 run blocking snaps.
Looking to the Jets’ tight ends for help setting edges? You won’t find much with free agent signings Tyler Conklin or C.J. Uzomah—they’re also receiving failing grades in the bottom quartile of tight ends with at least 15 run blocking snaps.
Just like with pass protection, all it takes is one breakdown from an offensive lineman to disrupt a running play, and the fact remains that the Jets have been stuffed too often this season to rely on their ground attack to sustain drives. As a result, they have fallen behind in every game, holding a lead for just those final 22 seconds of their miracle win against the Browns.
Remember when everyone howled over Flacco chucking it up 59 times in the 24-9 opening game loss to Baltimore? As I noted then, 35 of his dropbacks came after the Jets fell behind 24-3 with a little over two minutes remaining in the third quarter. What was he supposed to do in that pickle? More handoffs into the middle of the line that gained two yards? I guarantee you that the crescendo from the MetLife Stadium crowd’s boos would have been even louder.
Going into Pittsburgh, the Jets’ game plan will undoubtedly call for an emphasis on establishing a running game after the Steelers were gashed by the Browns last week, though a caution flag should be raised when looking at Pittsburgh’s 28th-ranked overall run defense this season as an indicator that Gang Green has a good chance to get well on the ground. The sample size is too small and we don’t know how Pittsburgh’s defensive identity will adjust without injured star edge rusher T.J. Watt.
The irony is that the Jets really do think they’ll be doing Wilson a favor with such a plan of attack when this team hasn’t proven they can block well enough to avoid a host of second-and-third-and-longs that will put their young quarterback under the gun.
Prediction: Steelers 26 Jets 9