Douglas Drafts Like He Knows All; Jets Fans Know Better
Like they are wont to do in important moments for the franchise’s direction, the Jets zigged with their first round pick in Thursday’s NFL Draft when the data pointed to a zag.
Because they always know better.
Not that consensus picks are guaranteed to pan out (see Wilson, Zach), but “reaches” tend to have much lower success rates.
And boy was Will McDonald IV a reach. The Iowa State edge rusher AT BEST was given a very low first round grade by “experts”, with most projecting him to go early in the second round.
By taking McDonald about 20 spots ahead of his consensus rank, Jets General Manager Joe Douglas once again displayed a lack of humility that has resulted in a 13-32 record since he started to put his imprint on the franchise following the 2019 season.
He’s telling us, he knows. He knew in 2020 that perpetually injured Mekhi Becton was a better prospect than second team All-Pro Tristan Wirfs. Or that the rest of that Jets Draft class couldn’t possibly go bust three years later. And let’s not dismiss that Douglas swore by Wilson too.
Douglas is receiving heaps of praise for last year’s top two picks after cornerback Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner and wide receiver Garrett Wilson captured the 2022 Defensive and Offensive Rookie of the Year honors, respectively. Guess what? Those were such consensus picks that I nailed them in advance, and my crystal ball is made of nerf.
In reality, no one can really know. At best, these picks are educated guesses, even if most NFL GMs are vastly more educated on the subject matter than those that criticize them.
What we do know about McDonald is that he’s in that defensive end/linebacker tweener category at 6-foot 4 and about 240 pounds. Even Jets Head Coach Robert Saleh said that McDonald will need to bulk up to make an impact on the field.
Most scouts are disregarding McDonald’s drop in production as a senior (he’ll be 24 in June, another red flag) due to the Cyclones inexplicable defensive scheme that had him line up inside after registering 27.5 sacks combined over the previous two seasons when playing out wide. They instead marvel at his bend around the edge and length that is helpful in forcing fumbles (10 in 54 college games).
With all that, he still wasn’t ranked better than the sixth best edge rusher in his Draft class by the most respected analysts. Pro football Network didn’t include him in their top ten. And by the time the Jets were on the clock at 15, only three were taken.
If Douglas really did have McDonald that high up on his board, that much above Georgia’s Nolan Smith and Clemson’s Myles, Murphy, he should have traded down. It would be shocking if Douglas indeed received zero trade offers for a pick swap, as some reporters surmised. Never mind the points and the value charts, take what you can get and the odds are good that you’d still get your man plus whatever compensation comes your way.
And if you don’t, so what? Maybe the next guy up will play an actual position of need. It’s not like McDonald will see much of the field this season with Carl Lawson, John Franklin-Myers, Bryce Huff, Jermaine Johnson, and Michael Clemons all ahead of him at the moment on the depth chart at the two ends. As my friend Mike joked, “Now the Jets can dress 10 d-linemen again so everyone can play 12 snaps!”
This was supposed to be an all-in year with quarterback Aaron Rodgers taking control of the offense. He’ll be 40 this season, so the focus should have been on surrounding him with the best help possible.
I get that the trade with Green Bay for Rodgers cost the Jets a shot at one of the top four tackles, with Pittsburgh moving up to New England’s slot to take the last one in Georgia’s Broderick Jones at 14. However, if you’re going to load up on a position, why not select the consensus top receiver in Ohio State’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba? Does Douglas think all his receivers like Corey Davis won’t get hurt this season?
Oh wait. He knows.