Douglas’ Blind Faith Could Become A Disturbing Trend For Jets
James Morgan was a lonely fellow as of 4pm on Tuesday.
The quarterback became the first player drafted by Joe Douglas (4th round, 2020) since he took over as Jets general manager two years ago to be kicked to the waiver wire curb, though the expectation is that New York will place Morgan on its practice squad should he go unclaimed.
Every single one of Douglas’ other 18 draftees made the cut to Gang Green’s 53-man roster (which dropped to 52 when the trade of tight end Chris Herndon to Minnesota was announced). After the Jets made their list public, The Athletic’s Connor Hughes pointed out that only 11 players remain from the prior Mike Maccagnan era, 12 if you count wide receiver Jeff Smith, whom Maccagnan signed as an undrafted free agent but was cut after the Maccagnan-to-Douglas transition and later moved to the Jets’ practice squad.
That’s quite some turnover. On one hand, you can argue that it was necessary, given the Jets abysmal 23-57 record over the last five seasons. Teams that have just ordinary talent are due for at least one outlier season in such a span.
However, there is a tendency among some general managers to go beyond faith in their own evaluation process. Conviction is fine, but it worries me that Douglas exhibits some signs of excessive hubris. For instance, the draft-day trade to move up to select Alijah Vera-Tucker was panned by those who measure the value of such deals. You don’t do that—for a guard, no less--unless you are absolutely sure that the targeted player (14th overall) will be more productive than the TWO players who were taken with the picks you surrendered (23rd and 66th overall).
And how can you be so sure? So much of NFL Draft success is luck—can the player stay healthy of body and mind, does his skillset translate to the pro level, and will he be in the right system? The film “Moneyball” dealt with baseball, but Brad Pitt’s rant about evaluating talent is relevant to the NFL when he said to a scout, “You don’t have a crystal ball. You can’t look at a kid and predict his future…I’ve listened to you tell those parents, ‘When it comes to your son, I know.’ And you don’t.” The point is: No matter the sport, sometimes prospects pan out as hoped; sometimes they don’t. To proceed as if you do know how it all will play out is foolhardy.
To be fair, Douglas has also made a slew of trades in his short tenure that have earned rave reviews, receiving surplus value on deals for safety Jamal Adams (not my favorite, but you can’t argue with the sales price), quarterback Sam Darnold, and now Herndon, an underachieving player on the roster bubble for whom the Jets received a 2022 fourth-round pick in exchange for a sixth-round pick. In several other instances, Douglas was able to trade down to recoup draft picks he lost in other deals, including the Vera-Tucker trade.
But getting back to the roster, some of the survivors had no business making the team, in my opinion, other than they had the full faith and credit of the man who drafted them. What has running back La’Mical Perine shown that made him a better fit for the Jets’ offensive scheme than Josh Adams? Adams is bigger. faster, and more elusive. In a smaller sample size, he averaged nearly two more yards per carry, including 1.5 more yards per carry after contact, than Perine last season, according to ProFootballFocus.com. They’re fairly equivalent catching balls out of the backfield and neither is stellar in pass protection.
So, what was the deciding factor, other than Perine was a Douglas fourth-round selection in 2020 whereas Adams was picked up off the street? Maybe Douglas felt he could sneak Adams through waivers and re-sign him afterwards if Perine is forced to go on injured reserve because, yes, he’s hurt again (foot).
Similarly, edge rusher Jabari Zuniga, a 2020 third-rounder, is back on the shelf with a knee injury but made the Jets’ 53, beating out, among others, Ronnie Blair, a veteran with ties to new Head Coach Robert Saleh from San Francisco but who also was dealing with a hamstring injury. The problem is, in his limited days when healthy, Zuniga had been even less effective at his craft than Perine. In 103 snaps last season, Zuniga registered a mere five tackles while hitting the QB just once in 64 pass rushes, per PFF. He got in one preseason game before his injury, though you wouldn’t know it from his stat line—one assisted tackle and one missed tackle in 12 snaps, including 9 inconsequential pass rushes.
So, even if you believe Blair’s injury knocked him out of contention fairly, why couldn’t the Jets carry an extra player at a different position, one where they were short (like linebacker) instead of Zuniga? Again, you have to wonder whether Douglas was showing undue favoritism to a player he drafted.
It would be pure hubris. Remember, it’s not like Douglas’ first class has already knocked it out of the park. His best picks may turn out to be his last two—cornerback Bryce Hall (fifth round) and punter Braden Mann (sixth round). After a promising rookie season, tackle Mekhi Becton struggled in training camp (though he dominated against backups in his two preseason games) and can’t seem to stay on the field; wide receiver Denzel Mims has fallen out of favor; and safety Ashtyn Davis, offensive lineman Cameron Clark, Zuniga and Perine are all constantly injured.
And then there was Morgan, whose selection was questioned at the time as a bit of a reach. Now that he’s available for free, we’ll see if there’s another team out there who can confirm that Douglas does indeed know all when it comes to Draft evaluations.