Devils Hope Vanecek’s Hot Streak Will Prove Sustainable Through Blackwood’s Injury Timeline
During these last four years of being force-fed lousy goaltending, Devils fans have seen their netminders go through pockets of streaks as hot as what they’re witnessing from Vitek Vanecek at the start of this 2022-23 season. Mackenzie Blackwood once won six straight starts in 2020 where he surrendered just seven goals and posted a ridiculous .970 save percentage.
Blackwood then proceeded to lose three of his last four games that season.
There’s no question that Vanecek is on a tear. He extended his winning streak to six games with a superb performance in New Jersey’s 3-2 victory over Calgary on Tuesday night at The Rock. Unlike some of the prior contests during this stretch where the Devils dominated possession, Vanecek was peppered by a desperate Flames squad in both games of a rare home-and-home against a Western Conference opponent. Vanecek made 60 saves on 65 shots in the two games, several of the spectacular variety.
Vanecek has seen his numbers rise in the NaturalStatTrick.com metrics since a desultory Devils debut in a 5-2 loss on October 15 in the team’s home opener. Since that night, he is 10th in the league in both save percentage and goals saved above average among the 40 goalies who have played at least three games, categories where the Devils have ranked in the bottom half since 2010. He’s also 13th in what NST labels high-danger save percentage, which can be an indication of degree of difficulty. His ascension is a main reason why the Devils are the talk of the NHL world, sitting atop the uber-competitive Metropolitan Division at 10-3.
Unfortunately, whether it was fatigue or injuries from overuse, regression to the mean, or simply bad luck, these kind of Devils hot flashes were always short-lived and not sustainable. And with Blackwood now out for the next three-to-six weeks due to an MCL sprain incurred while making a save in Edmonton on November 3, there is a danger that Vanecek will succumb to a similar fate.
When perusing the advanced data from NST, Vanecek, who in July was acquired from Washington in exchange for draft pick swaps and then had his contract extended for three years, hadn’t been anything better than a middling goalie in his two NHL seasons. The expectations for him this season was merely to share the load with Blackwood so that neither would be at risk of the above consequences from being overextended.
Devils coach Lindy Riff doesn’t have much of a choice now. With Jonathan Bernier still on long-term injured reserve following his hip surgery 11 months ago (and, according to NJ.com’s Ryan Novozinsky, working his way back from a setback he incurred during training camp), the backup is now Akira Schmid, who may have had some success at AHL Utica but did not distinguish himself one bit during his four starts for New Jersey last season, posting a brutal 4.83 goals against average and an .833 save percentage.
Schmid was one of a whopping seven goalies who saw action between the Devils’ pipes last season as injuries and ineffectiveness were the rule. While the team had a multitude of other issues, the goaltending clearly held it back, which is why General Manager Tom Fitzgerald made fixing it Priority No. 1 this offseason.
Ah, the best laid plans. Two of Fitzgerald’s three NHL-level goalies are on the shelf, his top prospect (Nico Daws) is scuffling through a 1-3 start at Utica, and the season rolls on, with New Jersey hosting Ottawa on Thursday.
The good news is that the Devils only have three sets of back-to-backs before Christmas, the far end of Blackwood’s expected return timeline. The off days will help with Vanecek’s recovery and minimize the nights where the Devils will have to turn to an unqualified goalie.
So by all means, ride Vanecek in the short term. You don’t mess with a winning streak. Hopefully, this time it won’t come at the expense of the bigger picture.