Devils Have Been Able To Overcome Hughes’ Production Slippage—So Far
Shortly after last month’s NHL All-Star break, Devils center Jack Hughes had his MVP-caliber season interrupted by missing four games due to that purposefully vague upper body injury designation. Based on my eye test, in the last 10 games since his return to action, something hasn’t seemed right with his game, He’s registered just one goal and four assists at five-on-five after averaging 1.31 points per game through the end of January.
The Devils, on the other hand, haven’t missed much of a beat, with Thursday night's 3-2 shootout victory in Washington upping their record to 7-2-1 in that span. New Jersey (42-16-6) has maintained its solid hold on second place in the Metropolitan Division through Hughes’ injury and ensuing “slump” and seems destined to clinch their first playoff berth in five seasons by the end of the month.
Still, the Devils are going to need Hughes at 100% to get out of the first round for the first time since their run to the 2012 Stanley Cup Final. If he is indeed playing through something, the Devils would be wise to treat it properly down the stretch of the regular season rather than go for every point in a difficult chase to catch first place Carolina.
Maybe Hughes was never going to shoot at the 15.3% clip he had going for his first 50 games this season, but there appears to be a reason besides normal regression to his mean why his shooting percentage over the last ten games has plummeted to 3.45%. Those walk-up wrist shots from the left circle just don’t seem to have the zip and accuracy they had earlier in the season.
It’s not just Hughes’ production that has taken a hit lately—the Devils have been outscored, 13-6, at five-on-five over the last ten games when he’s been on the ice, per NaturalStatTrick.com. He’s giving the puck away at an alarming rate and his backchecking/defensive zone coverages have been lacking.
To be fair, his lower body, which includes his extraordinary skating, appears to be as sound as ever. That’s why his five-on-five expected goals percentage when he’s on the ice, though down from a near 60% peak, has been in the black (53.6%) over the last ten games. Hughes’ linemates, including top wings Jesper Bratt and, for the last three games, newly-acquired sniper Timo Meier, haven’t helped him pick up the slack by converting many of their scoring chances either.
Fortunately, other Devils have gotten red hot in this stretch, with Dawson Mercer leading the way with an 11-game point streak (11 goals and 8 assists), which is tied for the longest ever for any Devils player under 22. Third-line center Erik Haula, snakebitten almost all season, has seen his puck luck take a turn for the better, with four goals and six assists in his last 11 games. Haula and Mercer each netted one during Thursday’s second period to give New Jersey a (short-lived) 2-1 lead.
Hughes, meanwhile, was held off the scoresheet for the second consecutive game and third time in five games. He also was stopped by Washington goalie Darcy Kuemper on New Jersey’s first shootout attempt. At least Hughes’ possession metrics returned to their elite standard and his line didn’t get scored against, which was an improvement from Tuesday’s 4-3 loss to Toronto, when Hughes didn’t track back to cover Michael Bunting driving to the net for the Maple Leafs’ tying goal with 4:50 remaining in the third period.
For nearly the first two-thirds of the season, Hughes was deservedly being mentioned as a Hart Trophy finalist for the league’s MVP that will almost assuredly go to Edmonton’s Connor McDavid. He was carrying New Jersey on his back for long stretches of the season.
Whether it’s his back, some other body part that’s still sore, or just plain fatigue, the Devils have to ensure that their top gun gets to the playoffs at full strength.