Devils’ First-Round Pick Must Be Trade Chip
At the 2013 NHL Entry Draft, the Devils made a bold move to acquire Vancouver goaltender Cory Schneider in exchange for the No. 9 overall pick, which the Canucks used to select forward Bo Horvat.
At the time, New Jersey was preparing for an eventual transition from aging GOAT goalie Martin Brodeur and Schneider seemed like a capable heir based on his growth as Vancouver’s backup to Roberto Luongo. In fact, Schneider did produce a couple of outstanding seasons in New Jersey’s net before falling off a cliff by the middle of the 2017-18 campaign, at one point losing 21 consecutive games. Horvat, meanwhile, developed into a 30-goal scorer but is now plying his trade as a core member of the Islanders.
If the Devils had to do it over again, would they?
Well, they’ll have that opportunity this offseason. After missing out on their slim odds of Lottery Luck last week, the Devils are back in a similar position debating the present versus the future, holding the No, 10 overall pick at June 28’s Draft at the Las Vegas Sphere. Deal, or no deal?
This team has been straddling between mindsets of continuing to rebuild through youth versus taking the plunge. New Jersey seemed to be willing to go all-in last summer following a growth spurt that saw them win a playoff round for the first time since 2012. But multiple factors conspired to put the Devils back to also-ran status.
What’s next?
There’s no question the Devils require an upgrade in goal in order to right the ship, with only Jake Allen, who at this stage of his career should be a backup, under contract for 2024-25 (youngsters Akira Schmid and Nico Daws are restricted free agents while Kaapo Kahkonen will be unrestricted). New Jersey General Manager Tom Fitzgerald can remedy his failure to address the position a year ago by utilizing his first-round pick as the primary trade chip for a legitimate starter, the “big-game hunting” he alluded to in his end-of-season press conference.
Or, if someone he likes slides into New Jersey’s Draft slot, Fitzgerald has the flexibility to go in a different direction.
From a mere glance at the mock boards, where a plurality has New Jersey tabbing undersized Spokane center Berkly Catton at No. 10, I think Fitzgerald’s choice won’t be all that difficult. Since 1990, the only player taken in this slot who went on to star in the league is Colorado’s Mikko Rantanen from the 2015 Draft (with a stick tap to Radek Dvorak for a long NHL career following his 1995 selection).
I’ll take those 1-in-30 odds. Devils fans should demand that Fitzgerald solve this goaltending crisis once and for all, no matter what.
The problem, however, is that not only do other teams have leverage by knowing how desperate the Devils will/should be this summer, there will be others making offers for the same few difference-makers, as goaltending league-wide has seen a bit of a decline. Nashville GM Barry Trotz already announced he will be holding Fitzgerald over a barrel before he succumbs to a trade of two-time All-Star goalie Jusse Saros. One would expect Calgary to be equally difficult in discussions about Jacob Markstrom.
Obviously, the Devils’ first-round pick would have to be in play to acquire anyone of that caliber. At minimum. I don’t believe Fitzgerald is averse to that, but he must be sure of what he is getting.
There might be other veteran goalies who enter the trade market due to salary cap or internal development issues—Boston’s Linus Ullmark is often a topic of speculation, but there’s no reason the Bruins can’t reprise their successful alternating system with restricted free agent Jeremy Swayman for another season. I’ll pass on some of the lower-level guys like Columbus’ Elvis Merzlikins and Anaheim’s John Gibson, at least when it comes to offering up New Jersey’s No. 10 pick.
Saros, for all his accolades, is coming off a merely ok season, finishing 20th in the league in both goals against average and save percentage (minimum 20 games). Per NaturalStatTrick.com, he ranked 23rd in both goals saved above average and high danger chance save percentage among the 61 goalies who played at least 20 games (Vitek Vanecek, who was New Jersey’s presumptive No. 1 goalie entering this season but then was traded at the deadline, was last). While decent, Saros didn’t exactly stand on his head in Nashville’s first-round loss to Vancouver in six games, stretching his playoff streak to six straight appearances without a series victory.
That probably won’t matter a year from now when Saros, who will then turn 30, is scheduled to hit unrestricted free agency. He’s going to want a raise from his current $5 million AAV, a relative bargain for a goalie who has averaged 65 games played for the last three seasons. The Devils would have to be careful in reviewing their own top-heavy cap sheet before making such a big investment going forward.
That’s why Markstrom, who has two more seasons at $6 million per year on his deal, is the better option, in my opinion. He sported the NHL’s fourth-best high danger save percentage, per NST, on a team that was a tick lousier than New Jersey—the Flames will be picking ninth next month. Two seasons ago, Markstrom backstopped the Flames to an impressive 111-point campaign, the team’s best since their 1989 Stanley Cup year.
Markstrom will turn 35 in January, but I’d consider him more of a bridge until one of New Jersey’s younger goalies in their pipeline is ready for prime time, as opposed to this team’s unfortunate trend of rushing guys to The Show.
I don’t want to minimize how poorly Markstrom played in 2022-23, when only seven NHL goalies posted a worse GSAA than his minus-18.32, per NST. He as much as anyone epitomizes the year-to-year nature of rollercoaster goaltending that this league often produces.
Is that risk worth a 1? It depends on where you think the Devils are in relation to the rest of the league. If you are in the group that believes New Jersey is a goalie away from Stanley Cup contention, you part with the pick. The mistake former GM Lou Lamoriello made in 2013 with Schneider was his unrequited faith in his mediocre squad, a disturbing trait he has continued in his role as President of the Islanders.
Fitzgerald’s iteration is immensely more talented than the 2013 Devils. As such, he can think differently while doing the same.