Debunking Revisionist History Of Saleh’s Jets

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Any time a situation unexpectedly goes down the tubes, be it in politics or sports, a whole lot of “what if” analyses crop up.

In the Jets case, the public sphere has seemed to be inundated with second-guessing regarding the coaching changes following Gang Green’s Week 5 loss to Minnesota in London. Owner Woody Johnson then made what he said was a unilateral decision to fire Head Coach Robert Saleh, replacing him with Defensive Coordinator Jeff Ulbrich in the interim. Ulbrich then took the offensive play-calling away from Offensive Coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, the good friend of quarterback Aaron Rodgers, and gave it to Passing Game Coordinator and Quarterbacks Coach Todd Downing.

As we all know, the Jets didn’t exactly course correct thereafter. To the contrary, they plunged further into the depths of also-ran status by dropping four of the next five games. At 3-7, they should be thinking more about maximizing their position for the 2025 NFL Draft than holding onto the fantasy that they can claw their way back into the playoff race.

Those fans that are in the denial or anger state of grief are lashing out that this wouldn’t have happened if Johnson had just stayed with Saleh through the end of the season. Since this isn’t a movie, no one has a view of such an alternate reality, so we’ll never know.

All we can do is parse the actual results from the Jets’ time under Saleh and Ulbrich. And while it’s fair to say that the team might not have been this awful, especially in losses at New England and Arizona, there is no way to conclude that this season would have been hunky-dory if continually coached by a guy who went 20-36 during his three-plus seasons in charge,

Those pro-Saleh fans forget that the Jets were the NFL’s second-worst offensive team during his tenure as measured by rbsdm.com’s expected points added per play. When the team finally got a future Hall-of-Famer in Rodgers on the field, they surged all the way to 23^rd through the first five games of 2024. More anecdotally, the Jets often looked unprepared at the outset, with opponents joking about their predictability. Discipline was always a problem. Saleh routinely wasted timeouts and trusted his instincts as a defensive-oriented coach rather than the analytics that suggested going for fourth downs.

So what would 12 more games with Saleh have brought? Maybe a few more weeks where the Jets were shown “In the picture” on network broadcasts, only to face the bitter disappointment of being eliminated later with something like another 7-10 or 8-9 record (and dropping down the Draft order to boot)? This team was never going to win anything meaningful with Saleh, so what are we doing here?

Like I’ve written previously (Saleh’s Demise A Most Unsurprising Shocker), the problem with the Saleh dismissal was that it came too late, not too early. That the Jets have tanked further under Ulbrich is by no means a tribute to Saleh’s work. Saleh may still be an excellent defensive coordinator who could possibly earn another shot down the road, but his first attempt as a HC was a colossal failure.

Make no mistake, Saleh isn’t solely to blame, Joe Douglas’ days as Jets General Manager have to be dwindling. His six-year contract expires in June, so there’s no point in giving him the keys to the coming offseason after he has already squandered gobs of Draft capital and salary cap space.

And then there are the players, who for whatever reason have underperformed relative to their capabilities. The coaches don’t throw, block, tackle, or cover in one-on-one matchups. Rodgers, 40, has aged disgracefully in terms of his processing and vision, not just his mobility following last year’s Achilles surgery.

As always, the Jets are in this predicament because the organization reeks from the top. The incompetent Johnson brothers are the constant, and coaches like Saleh, Ulbrich, or whoever ends up with the gig in 2025 will always have a hard time overcoming that handicap.

Prediction: Jets 16 Colts 13