Can A Healthy Simmons Cure What Ails Nets? Be Skeptical
On a podcast last week, Nets budding star Mikal Bridges, the world-class teammate that he is, expressed confidence that Ben Simmons would be able to return to his prior form after two consecutive offseasons rehabilitating an injured back. Leaks from Simmons’ camp have indicated that he should be able to hit the ground running without restrictions on Day 1 of training camp in two months.
For Nets fans’ sake, I hope they’re both right. A healthy Simmons playing at the All-Star level of his last three seasons as a Sixer has the potential to change expectations for the 2023-24 campaign. Right?
If you take off the rose-colored glasses, you have to be more than a tad skeptical.
For even at his best--showcasing elite passing, ballhandling, and perimeter defense thanks to his length and athleticism—Simmons is a flawed player. Comparisons to Denver’s Michael Porter Jr., who needed multiple back surgeries in the early stages of his career before developing into a key piece in the Nuggets’ 2023 NBA Championship run, aren’t 100% appropriate. If there was any slippage in Porter’s game from the procedures, he made it up with his long-range marksmanship—he converted 41.6% of his three-point attempts last season, in line with his career rate.
As Nets fans--and NBA fans in general—know all too well, that is not Simmons’ forte. He’s at his best as an attacker, especially in the open floor. In addition, he is more likely to thrive when he’s paired with a big man who can space the floor, as he was in Philly with Joel Embiid. During that last 2020-21 season, the Sixers offensive rating with both Simmons and Embiid on the court was 118.2 in 1,164 minutes, a rate which would have led the league that year. In the other runs that Simmons played sans Embiid, none of the Sixers’ five-man lineups scored at a clip above 110 points per 100 possessions (25-minute minimum). Playing 368 minutes next to aging center Dwight Howard was an epic disaster, with Philly posting a 101.4 offensive rating, which was below that of the 30th-ranked Thunder that season.
Alas, the Nets will be going into another season without the type of floor-spacing big man that helps unlock Simmons’ full arsenal. The team was able to overcome having Simmons and a second non-shooter like Nic Claxton on the court simultaneously last season because the offense could always rely upon the incomparable one-on-one talents of Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving to score from every level. In Simmons’ last five games following the trades of both superstars and prior to his shutdown due to the injury setback, the Nets’ offensive rating in the Simmons/Claxton minutes plummeted from 116.3 to 103.9.
You could argue that, in addition to the unfairly small sample size, the Nets were trying to put together a brand new team at that point, so offensive efficiency was likely going to suffer. However, I just don’t think that continuity in training camp will be enough to hide the team’s glaring deficiencies in offensive skills. In addition to lacking a go-to scorer to run with Bridges, Brooklyn parted ways with some of their best three-point shooters in necessary offseason moves to get under the luxury tax threshold, further amplifying the clogged-paint impact when utilizing two non-shooter lineups.
Ok, now let’s get deeper into Simmons’ shooting. It’s bad, from everywhere outside the restricted area. You could possibly live with his three-point avoidance if he could make free throws at a more reasonable rate. Unfortunately, last season’s 43.9% percentage was a career low.
And unacceptable. I may have ventured into hyperbole when I ranted on a recent “The Only Nets Fans You Know” podcast, “Has this guy gotten better at anything related to basketball since he came into the league?” To be fair, few days go by without a social media posting of Simmons working out. Still, he has not improved one iota in the game’s most important skill, and the resulting confidence drain has affected his overall performance.
Let’s also not forget that Simmons’ travails pre-date his back woes. Many recall Simmons’ gaffe late in Game 7 of the 2021 Eastern Conference Semifinals against the Hawks, where he bypassed an easy layup in favor of a pass to Matisse Thybulle. But were you also aware that he put up a mere three field goal attempts in 56 fourth quarter minutes during that series? It was as if he was so afraid of getting sent to the free throw line, where he shot 15-for-45 (33.3%) over the seven games, that he pretty much took himself out of the late-game offense.
Watching him in Brooklyn last season was painful, and, again, it wasn’t just because he was probably diminished physically from the microdiscectomy surgery in May 2022. All those fallaway shots reeked of a fear of getting fouled.
The Nets envision a healthy Simmons having the ball in his hands as the lead guard this season, but how will that work in the half court? Given his shooting inadequacies, opponents typically give him a runway into the paint. Ah, but they have also learned that they need not send help. When perimeter defenders can stay attached to their assignments, it disarms Simmons’ passing gift. That leaves Simmons with the difficult choices of A) Taking it to the rim (which might result in foul shots, where he isn’t confident); B) Pulling up to shoot (where he is less confident); or C) Passing the ball back out (the ultimate white flag).
From all reports, the Nets have been immensely supportive of Simmons in his recovery from both physical and mental difficulties. I’m sure the Performance Team, as they have been with every player outside of the old Big 3, will be cautious in his return to all activities, including on-court time. Should Simmons fail to play up to his potential, it won’t be because of Brooklyn’s basketball staff.
As part of the support, Nets Head Coach Jacque Vaughn will likely continue to give Simmons minutes with the reserves as a de facto small ball 5 to mitigate the teams’ spacing problems and allow Simmons to play freer. But that isn’t a viable long-term solution. Simmons just isn’t as effective as an interior defender/rim protector as he is against guards and wings, so you’re just playing whack-a-mole.
The underlying problem for Brooklyn, which General Manager Sean Marks should have known prior to agreeing to take on Simmons and his monster contract in the February 2022 James Harden blockbuster, was that Simmons was always going to be a terrible fit with this team.
So let’s all hope that Simmons can return to health; just don’t expect him to be the cure for what ails the Nets.