Another Late Loss Shows Why Jets Overhyped Defense Needs An Offseason Overhaul
Sunday’s 32-26 overtime loss in Miami marked the fifth time this season where the Jets blew a fourth quarter lead, the most in a season in the franchise’s tortured history, per ESPN’s Rich Cimini.
This column isn’t about parsing blame between different aspects of the team, because everyone in the organization from the top down has their fingerprints on this 3-10 disaster. Offense, defense, special teams, coaching, roster management, ownership—they’ve all contributed to a season unlike any other, even if in varying degrees.
But the above stat speaks volumes as to how overrated Gang Green’s defense has been. They’re fourth in the league in yards allowed, but just 19th in points surrendered, which means they don’t get off the field when it’s most needed.
Since the only meaningful development remaining over the final four weeks is to evaluate who should be brought back in 2025, let’s take a look at which defenders deserve it (see Jets In Familiar Mode Of Playing For Next Year for the analysis on the Jets’ offense—all salary cap figures courtesy of overthecap.com):
Interior defensive line:
Keep: Quinnen Williams, Leonard Taylor
Release: Javon Kinlaw (FA), Solomon Thomas (FA), Leki Fotu (FA)
How the mighty have fallen. Whereas New York’s defensive line was the team’s backbone as recently as a year ago, it is in now dire need of a makeover, especially if the next head coach wants to maintain the robust rotation Robert Saleh and Jeff Ulbrich have employed for the last four seasons. Williams is the only starter worthy of a return, even if his 2024 production was a bit off from his standard. Taylor, an undrafted rookie free agent, had enough reps with penetration to make me want to see more. The Jets will have to eat some dead money on Kinlaw, who got over $7 million this season to rank 102nd among the 139 interior defensive linemen with at least 150 snaps in ProFootballFocus.com’s defense grading system, thanks to former General Manager Joe Douglas putting void years into the contract. Fotu should be one-and-done as well, because he actually performed worse than Kinlaw in the two games he was active. I could see the Jets bringing Thomas back for his locker room value, but I view him as a Saleh guy, so it’s probably best that he starts fresh elsewhere.
Defensive ends/Edge Rushers:
Keep Jermaine Johnson, Will McDonald IV, Michael Clemons, Eric Watts, Braiden McGregor
Release: Haason Reddick (FA)
Forces in and out of their control turned the Jets’ once fearsome four-man pass rush into figurative lambs. Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa dropped back 48 times on Sunday and didn’t get hit once (he had a scramble for 3 yards before sliding). My friend Chris asked if Reddick was active and was shocked when told he was—Douglas’ major offseason trade acquisition has barely registered a ripple after ending his distracting seven-week holdout, with just 0.5 sacks in five games, well below his intensely negotiated incentive markers. Good riddance. At least McDonald had a terrific first half to his sophomore season; he seems to have hit a wall, though. Johnson’s Week 2 Achilles rupture was a tough blow, made worse by forcing Ulbrich to give more reps to the underachieving Clemons, who makes a habit of allowing opposing QBs to break his assigned containment. Fortunately, Clemons--and undrafted free agents Watts and McGregor--are all still on cheap rookie deals, so there’s no harm in having them back at Training Camp 2025--with the understanding that they’ll be competing for roster spots with newcomers.
Linebackers:
Keep: Quincy Williams, Jamien Sherwood (FA), Zaire Barnes, Chazz Surratt (FA), Marcelino McCrary-Ball
Release: C.J. Mosley. Sam Eguavoen (FA)
There seems to be some misconception that Mosley’s deal is done here, that last week’s addition to season-ending injured reserve ended his disappointing Jets tenure. Yes, the Jets can save $4 million in cap space by cutting ties, but they’ll also be adding a massive $16.4 million (approximately 8.8 million in 2025 if given a post June designation) to an already enormous dead money pool as well, partially due to the $4.25 million 2025 guarantee. Any savings would likely be more than offset by the raise required to re-sign Sherwood, an average guy at best. Seems nonsensical to me if Mosley’s neck injury isn’t a long-term issue, but that’s how it will likely play out. Surrat is the Jets leading special teams tackler and has some speed, so he could return. Barnes has one more training camp to prove he can stay on the field.
Cornerbacks:
Keep: Sauce Gardner, D.J. Reed (FA), Michael Carter II, Qwan’Tez Stiggers, Jarrick Bernard-Converse Brandin Echols (FA)
Release: Isaiah Oliver (FA)
The Jets’ secondary took a few more hits than in past seasons due to the deteriorating pass rush. Still, Gardner will surely be looking for a mega extension this offseason, which will make it hard for management to bring back all their pending free agents in the CB room. Reed is still very highly rated by PFF despite a zero in the interception column. He’ll be pricy, but a key piece if it can get done. Echols is a valuable depth player who may see more lucrative opportunities elsewhere if Reed stays. The odds are low that both will return to New York in 2025, but I think one is certainly possible. I don’t know which one, so that’s why I have them both listed as keepers. One of Stiggers or Bernard-Converse won’t make it out of camp. Oliver had a decent season in a jack-of-all-trades role, but he’s another Saleh/Ulbrich guy.
Safeties:
Keep: None
Release: Tony Adams (FA), Chuck Clark (FA), Ashtyn Davis (FA), Jalen Mills (FA)
Clean house. Woody Johnson allegedly hates Adams, Clark is too slow to play in a Cover 2, and Mills is a missed tackle machine (only Arizona’s Budda Baker was dinged with more missed tackles among safeties since Week 7, per PFF). Like tight end Kenny Yeboah, Davis has had about five lives in New York. After a season with one special teams tackle and zero defensive turnovers created, it’s time for the last surviving Jet from Douglas’ first Draft in 2020 to leave the building.
Specialists:
Keep: Thomas Morstead (punter), Anders Carlson (kicker), Thomas Hennessy (long snapper)
Release: Greg Zuerlein (kicker)
Throw some more dead money water (about $2.3 million) into the pool with kicking Greg The Leg to the curb. I don’t think Carlson has the 2025 gig sewn up—Ulbrich threw him under the bus after Sunday’s game for not booting the kickoff in the last minute of regulation out of the end zone. The Jets are seemingly always auditioning for the position anyway.