A Nets Long-Term Plan: It’s Not That Bad Here

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I don’t know if three wins in their last four games, including Saturday night’s 136-121 rout at short-handed Philadelphia, will be enough to silence all the social media bomb throwers who want Nets General Manager Sean Marks to blow up the team by Thursday’s trade deadline, but it couldn’t hurt.

Don’t get me wrong, the Nets (20-28, 1.5 games behind Atlanta for the final play-in seed) are still a bad basketball team. Credit them for taking advantage of opponents who weren’t prepared on those particular nights. Just don’t expect it to be sustainable over the long haul. And counting on Ben Simmons, who provided energy jolts in wins over the Jazz and Sixers during his first restricted minutes after missing the previous 38 games with a back injury, to stay healthy for the remainder of the season is like when I was counting on my old 1983 Chevy Chevette to get me to college without breaking down during the three-hour trip. Each could be a lot of fun when it worked; not so much all those times when it had to sit in a garage.     

That doesn’t mean that Brooklyn is the wasteland that some fans think it is. And it’s certainly not close to the wreckage that Marks encountered when he took the gig in February 2016. I go back to former Net Joe Johnson’s old quote, “It’s not that bad here.”

This roster already includes several players who have value around the league. Though not their own until 2030, the Nets have some tradeable first-round picks in their inventory. And Marks has already executed his blueprint for rebuilding before.

As such, there is no need to tear it all down in the next six months and start from scratch. Why dump valued players like Mikal Bridges and Diran Finney-Smith for more picks this week? That would lead to another three-to-five years of pain. How about we cut that down by at least a half?

Thos might come as a shock to some, but there’s a chance the Nets can start the 2024 offseason UNDER the salary cap. Not by a lot, and it assumes that, A) Spencer Dinwiddie and Royce O’Neale are dealt at the deadline for picks and expiring contracts, and B) All other pending free agents, except for center Nic Claxton and guard Lonnie Walker, have their salary cap holds renounced.  

I’ll leave the accounting order to Marks and his cap magician Matt Tellem, but here’s a sound plan for this offseason.

1) Re-sign Claxton—I’m penciling him in at around a $22 million cap hit for 2024-25 with a rising scale in later years (when the league is expected to see a cap spike that corresponds with a new TV deal windfall) to be safe.

2) Utilize a portion of the nontaxpayer midlevel exception to retain Lonnie Walker IV and Jalen Wilson—say $6 million for Walker and $2 million for Wilson.

3) Sign two veterans with the minimum exception, which would put Brooklyn at an approximate payroll of $150.75 million for 13 players.

4) With the luxury tax line expected to land at around $171.315 million for 2024-25, that gives Marks a little room to play with his trade exceptions, the largest being the $19.9 million from last offseason’s Joe Harris salary dump. Do you know who fits nicely into that and wouldn’t make the Nets bust through the tax threshold? Old friend Bojan Bogdanovic. Assuming he isn’t traded by the Pistons this week, the Nets could get him with some Draft capital, preferably the least favorable if a 1 is required.

That would leave the Nets with a rotation of (in no particular order): Simmons, Claxton, Bridges, Cam Johnson, Cam Thomas, Finney-Smith, Bogdanovic, Walker, Day’Ron Sharpe. vet minimum point guard (Houston’s Aaron Holiday?), and vet minimum wild card. The three current rookies—Wilson, Dariq Whitehead, and Noah Clowney—would be free to continue their development at their own pace.

Note: If for some reason the Nets needed a 15^th player that would put them over the tax during the season, they can always trade someone because the penalties are based on the year-end roster’s payroll.

I get that the group’s ceiling is nowhere near that of a legitimate title contender, but it isn’t meant to be. It just can’t stink. For if the Nets can make this a functional outfit, the following summer is where it can get really interesting. Simmons and his $40 million contract come off the books and restricted free agents Thomas and Sharpe have relatively low cap holds. That means the Nets can be players again for the bigger names. Owner Joseph Tsai has previously shown a willingness to spend to open a championship window, so there’s no reason to believe that won’t continue be the case.

Again, all of this is predicated on Brooklyn not looking like an eyesore by then. No one can predict which stars will become disenchanted or want to come to New York City, either in free agency or via a trade. What we do know is that when a star looks at his options as to where he wants to play, he crosses off those places that aren’t ready to win.

Brooklyn can’t be deemed an attractive destination while hoping Marks can turn picks into productive players. As well as he’s drafted here, they’re not all going to hit, especially if his slots originated from good teams who are conveying late-round picks.

There are multiple ways to build a winning NBA team. If picks were the answer to everything, how come it took Sacramento forever and a day to get to relevancy (though I still wouldn’t classify them as championship material) despite living in the lottery? Same goes for Orlando. It wasn’t because Denver and Milwaukee had an overflowing stash of picks that eventually led them to the promised land. Anyone could have had Denver’s Nikola Jokic and the Bucks cashed in on Giannis Antetokounmpo at overall pick No. 15. And then there’s the 2020 Lakers, who won it all with a team that was purchased, not built through the Draft.

It’s not just the luck in executing the strategy, winning requires good health fortune too. I’ll go to my grave believing that the superstar-laden Nets would have won it all in 2021 if Kyrie Irving and James Harden hadn’t gotten hurt during the playoffs.

I don’t want to have to wait another five years to rekindle that belief.