A Meier Trade Would Bring Complicating Consequences To Devils Without Solving Bottom-Six Problems
At every NHL trade deadline, the buzzards encircle the carcasses of the league’s doormats in search of some fresh juice for a Stanley Cup run. The only difference this year is that the Devils are one of the predators, not the prey.
As such, New Jersey General Manager Tom Fitzgerald doesn’t have much of a break during this week-long hiatus before the All-Star game. Instead, he is probably on the phone at this minute attempting to finagle a deal for the missing pieces necessary for his club to compete with the Eastern Conference’s elite teams such as Boston, Carolina, and Toronto before the March 3 deadline.
It is assumed that one of Fitzgerald’s daily contacts is San Jose GM Mike Grier, a Devils assistant coach from 2018-20, with the topic of conversation at some point veering to Sharks wing Timo Meier, who is tied for 12th place in goals scored this season with 28.
Virtually every team can use a consistent goal scorer, and Vancouver’s trade of captain Bo Horvat (31 goals) to the Islanders on Monday likely set the low hurdle for what San Jose would want in compensation for Meier. Reports stated that it would take a first-round pick, a good prospect, and a young established NHL player to get a deal done.
There’s no question that Fitzgerald can come up with those goods, but whether he wants to is a more complicated analysis. Meier, a pending restricted free agent, structured his contract so that he is being paid $10 million this season, which becomes the amount any acquiring team must make as a qualifying offer for next season to maintain those restricted rights.
The Devils, hoping to end a dry period that has seen them qualify for the playoff s just once in the last 10 seasons. are getting quite top-heavy in their payroll allocation. The team is projected to have just 10 of their currently rostered players (including injured defenseman John Marino) under contract for 2023--at a cost of $44.3 million, with 13 players slated to enter free agency (eight restricted, five unrestricted), per capfriendly.com. Add in the dead money for former Devils Cory Schneider, Janne Kuokkanen, and Ilya Kovalchuk (just two more years of the $250,000 penalty, folks!) and Fitzgerald will only have about $36.5 million in cap space to get his work done this coming offseason.
The biggest upcoming headache is expected to be wing Jesper Bratt’s next negotiation, as his prior ones have been notoriously contentious. He has one more year as a restricted free agent, but it has been reported that the team has always attempted to find a long-term solution for their second-best point producer behind superstar Jack Hughes, only to be rebuffed by Bratt’s agent.
In an ideal world, Hughes’ $8 million AAV would be the ceiling for any Devils forward when setting terms for a new contract. Unfortunately, that’s not the world Fitzgerald lives in. If he trades for Meier without a pre-negotiated extension, he’ll be stuck paying $10 million for him next season while trying to justify that Bratt deserves less than Hughes. The alternative of Fitzgerald sticking to his guns is worse—Meier would then become an unrestricted free agent, meaning the Devils would have wasted multiple prime assets on a rental.
While I don’t dismiss Meier’s credentials or how seamlessly he’d fit with either Hughes or Nico Hischier, who Meier played with on the Swiss National Team, and the potential for a welcome boost to the power play, I’m not sold on the Devils needing a top-six addition that badly. No matter who has played on Hughes’ wing, even snakebitten forwards Tomas Tatar and Erik Haula, the team has scored plenty—only two forwards have been on the ice for more goals for at five-on-five than Hughes this season, according to NaturalStatTrick.com. Hischier is 69th, but he is such a sound two-way player that of the players above him, only three have a higher goals for percentage. In other words, the Devils’ top two lines are already dominating.
No, if anything (New Jersey is sixth in the league in goals per game), it’s the depth scoring that could use some improvement. Lines centered by Jesper Boqvist and Michael McLeod have barely registered a ripple on scoresheets this season. Their lines are the ones more likely to be stuck in survival mode in their own end because they can’t clear their zone. Though it’s not all their fault, maybe the Devils could make better use of their capital by going after bottom-six forwards who can add some size and grit to go along with more-than-occasional offensive production.
I mentioned a few potential targets back in December (Slump Shows Devils Light In Heaviness Department (substack.com)) but others have since emerged in speculative columns. Chicago’s Max Domi isn’t big (5-foot 10, 194 pounds), but there’s no question he plays with an edge like his father Tie did as a Ranger. He even has recorded 14 goals and 21 assists in 48 games this season for the dreadful Black Hawks, who should have an auction stand set up by now given their implied mission to tank for Connor Bedard. As a rental, Domi should cost Fitzgerald less, maybe a lower pick and a Grade B prospect.
Meier is a luxury that Fitzgerald may or may not be able to afford within the current salary cap structure. So why bother? His added presence, as impactful as it could be, will not guarantee the Devils a Cup. The Devils should shop elsewhere and continue to build the right way.