A Keefe Line Tweak Pays Dividends For Devils
The laws of unintended consequences are not all negative.
Devils Head Coach Sheldon Keefe made one tweak to his line combinations heading into Saturday night’s contest with streaking Pittsburgh at The Rock, swapping right wings Stefan Noesen and Dawson Mercer. Keefe’s stated reason: To try to get more production out of the third line centered by Erik Haula, with the more skilled Mercer seen as an offensive catalyst as opposed to the plodding Noesen.
Keefe’s move worked, but not in the way he had anticipated. It was Noesen’s presence on the Nico Hischier trio—as well as another lockdown effort by the team defense--that lifted New Jersey to a 3-0 victory.
Noesen broke a scoreless tie late in the second period by going to his established real estate at the left post to bang home a brilliant Hischier cross-crease feed and then engaged in an epic net front battle with Penguins defenseman Ryan Shea to allow Hischier to deposit a loose puck past goalie Tristan Jarry 7:47 into the final frame. Noesen wasn’t on the ice when the line’s third member, left wing Timo Meier, broke free for an empty netter that was set up by a mammoth Hischier blocked shot.
Hischier, as is often the case, was matched up with Pittsburgh’s red-hot Sidney Crosby line with Bryan Rust and Rickard Rakell, who combined for 13 goals and 21 assists over their last nine games. Though that unit was responsible for Pittsburgh’s best scoring opportunities, there were only a handful, as New Jersey stifled the Pens to the tune of a season low 12 shots on goal allowed. It was the sixth consecutive Devils opponent that registered 20 shots on goal or fewer, tying a franchise record.
The Devils know all about top-heavy scoring. They have gotten absolutely nothing out of their third and fourth lines this month. In the nine games, Haula and whoever has manned the fourth line have gone pointless while Noesen’s only mark on the scoresheet was a power play goal. Oh, Paul Cotter recorded an assist with a mish-mashed 6-on-5 group when the Devils were trailing, 3-0, late in the third period in Thursday’s loss at Columbus.
Fortunately, the Devils have been able to ride the Jack Hughes and Hischier lines, going 6-2-1 in that span. They’ve been dominating the NaturalStatTrick.com puck possession metrics at five-on-five, ranking first in expected goals for percentage, high danger scoring chance percentage, and actual goals for percentage. If not for an average PDO (shooting percentage plus save percentage), they might have been gaping at a nine-game winning streak.
Even those on the bottom six have had their share of opportunities. Among the forwards who have played at least three of the nine games, only Cotter, at 48.5%, has a sub-50% expected goals for percentage at five-on-five. Haula himself is second on the team in five-on-five high danger scoring chances and third in shots on goal this month. Like Cotter, Tomas Tatar, Justin Dowling, Nathan Bastian. et al, he just has nothing to show for it.
Is that a concern? At 22-11-3, the Devils are the NHL’s fourth-best team as measured by points percentage—they’ve still played four more games than their closest Metropolitan Division rivals, so total points at this stage is meaningless. There are worse places to be with one game remaining before the holiday break.
I think Keefe would acknowledge the season hasn’t gone exactly as he planned, but that’s not a bad thing. I mean, who had Noesen’s career high 15 goals placing him second among Devils goal scorers heading into the New Year on their Bingo card?