With the NFL Draft three weeks away, Jets fans are curious to see how new General Manager Darren Mougey approaches the event. New York holds the No. 7 overall pick on April 24’s Round 1, but that doesn’t mean it will stay there.
Will Mougey be quantity over quality process-oriented, with trades down to accumulate more picks? Or will he be like his predecessor Joe Douglas, who would move up after falling in love with a prospect? And if they keep the pick, how much does positional value contribute to Mougey’s analysis?
These are all unknowns, as is the sequence of picks in advance of New York’s. Not everyone is convinced that Tennessee will tab Miami quarterback Cam Ward with the first pick, though it sure is leaning heavily that way.
So when the Jets are on the clock with their first four picks, where should they go? Here is my first shot at a Mock Draft under the guideline that the player must be on the board in two of my highly utilized simulators (ProFootballNetwork.com, ProFootballFocus.com, and NFLMockDraftDatabase.com):
Round 1 (No. 7 overall): Will Campbell, LSU tackle
In a prior post, I mentioned Campbell as a possibility if Missouri tackle Armad Membou was gone by 7, which he was in this exercise. There will be howls about Campbell’s arm length (32 5/8” at the NFL Combine but 33 inches at his Pro Day measurement) and his exclusive work on the left side, where 2024 first-round pick Olu Fashanu resides. However, a good football player is a good football player, and Campbell, just 21, has proven himself against the nation’s collegiate best. Per PFF, Campbell was responsible for just four sacks allowed in nearly 1,500 pass block snaps over the last three seasons. LSU’s PR Department mentioned a 24-game streak where he kept his QB clean until the 2024 Week 10 contest at Florida. While a switch to the right side might have some early hiccups, scouting reports love Campbell’s competitiveness and Football IQ, which would fit into new Head Coach Aaron Glenn’s profile.
Round 2 (No. 42 overall): Walter Nolen, Ole Miss defensive tackle
This might not come to fruition as several pundits give Nolen a first-round grade due to his playmaking potential. Though his measurements came in a bit undersized at the Combine (6-foot 4 and 296 pounds), he might be the best run stuffer in the class—PFF credited him with 26 stops last season. He’d likely be too raw to act as an every-down Quinnen Williams type out of the gate, but as a 21-year old rookie, his ceiling makes him the pick. If Nolen is not there, Iowa State wide receiver Jayden Higgens, one of those big, contested-catch specialists, could be viewed as an Allen Lazard replacement. More intriguing is if this is where Mougey takes a quarterback, with both Jaxson Dart (Ole Miss) and Jalen Milroe (Alabama) on the board.
Round 3 (No. 73 overall): Harold Fannin Jr., Bowling Green tight end
While not the complete package like Penn State’s Tyler Warren, Fannin Jr. is coming off a monster season as a receiving tight end and has the tools to help out as a blocker as the second tight end in 12 personnel packages. Though his 40 time (4.71) isn’t all that eye-popping, PFF had him with 9 deep catches for 333 yards, the most in his Draft class. For comparison purposes, Warren was 5-for-115. The competition level matters, of course, but most scouts believe he’ll be an immediate plus in the passing game with his terrific hands and yards after the catch potential.
Round 4 (No. 110 overall): Will Howard, Ohio State quarterback
The age bias (He’ll be 24 on Opening Day) might actually play in the Jets’ favor, as Howard would theoretically be better prepared from a learning standpoint to take over for current QB1 Justin Fields after this season. Howard has seen quite a bit of coverages and pressure packages while going through top collegiate action at Kansas State and Ohio State, impressing scouts last season with his pro level arm strength and ability to use his feet to make plays off scrambles and RPOs. Make no mistake, Howard will be a project, but it doesn’t hurt to take a QB every year, especially with 2024 fifth rounder Jordan Travis’ injury status a mystery. I like Howard a tad better than Texas QB Quinn Ewers, who, despite also having the arm talent while being a year younger, has fallen behind Howard in most QB rankings.
Well I have become a big fan of yours sir as I have enjoyed pretty much all of your articles. While I’m a Knicks( not Nets) fan I still read your Nets work. But, ( there’s always a but😂)as a 60 year+ Jets fan I’m not passing on Tyler Warren. He solves a multitude of problems for us. He blocks, he is a playmaker in the passing game and will free GW up from double coverage and provide JF’s a easy target in crucial 3rd down or red zone situations. Looking at our current roster the TE room is basically vacant. Fortunately there are many intriguing TE’s options in this draft. The more talked about other than Warren have one thing in common, they are below average as blockers and not well suited to play the Y ( inline) position. Looking at our roster we have the 6’4” 226lb kid (Smartt) we signed in FA from the Chargers. Obviously at that size he’s not blocking anybody. Jeremy Ruckert is still waiting for his first successful NFL block after 3 years on the roster? So a blocking TE is a major requirement. Tyler Warren is clearly the best blocking TE in the early stages of this draft. My guess is we may draft a second TE like Jackson Dawes ( a great blocker) from Ga.Tech a little later We can get a quality RT a little later in rounds 2 ( Ozzy Trapillo (BC) or Williams( Texas) in round 3. I think DT is the next need and can be filled in rounds 2 or 3 depending on on where we take the OT. While there’s a shortage of top WR talent there are intriguing guys that will be there in the middle to late rounds like Arkansas Isaac TeSlaa or his teammates Andrew Armstrong( 6’4 205) or Tyrone Broden 6’7 215) 6th round? Tennesse has a 6’5” WR Donte Thornton who ran a 4.30 at the combine. The later rounds are always interesting. Joe Douglas made a lot of mistakes drafting but he was pretty good picking out UDFA’s so hopefully Mr. Mougey is as well. Thanks for another good read.