A Contrarian Take On Jets’ Fourth Down Aggressiveness In Loss To Rams
A main source of blame for the Jets’ despicable performance this season has been their coaching. The team is often ill-prepared, undisciplined, and outmaneuvered in terms of scheming matchups, especially late in games. And don’t get me started on the clock management disgraces. All of it has contributed heavily to this miserable 4-11 campaign.
However, count me among those who didn’t mind Jets interim Head Coach Jeff Ulbrich going for five fourth downs during Gang Green’s 19-9 loss to the visiting Rams on Sunday when conventional thinking (and certainly that of conservative prior Head Coach Robert Saleh) would have called for kicks. The Jets only converted two of them, gifting Los Angeles short fields twice that they turned into 10 points.
The other failed conversion occurred deep in Rams territory on the opening possession of the second half. That L.A. then marched on a 13-play drive to tie the game at 9-9 with a field goal explains why the simple choice to go for it there wasn’t the worst decision of Ulbrich’s day.
Now, I did take issue with some of the play calls—how have the Jets not learned by Week 16 that Braelon Allen is a far superior short yardage running back than Breece Hall? If you’re going with a dive into the middle of the line on fourth-and-1 from your own 33- yard line, give it to Allen, who has shown an ability to push the scrums forward in these situations. Instead, the Rams only needed three plays after the inevitable stuff to tie the score at 6-6 midway through the second quarter.
I also didn’t like the fade into the left corner of the end zone to wide receiver Davante Adams on the aforementioned fourth-and-4 from the 13-yard line. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers seemed to struggle throwing to the sidelines on a cold MetLife Stadium day; he had his most success dissecting the middle of the field. If a 50/50 play like a fade is the call, you might as well have kicked the field goal, though Anders Carlson missed two of his three kicks, including an extra point.
For those who dispute the general decision-making process on the fourth downs, Ulbrich matched the analytics models on each one. You play to win the game, right? ESPN’s calculations had the Jets increasing their win probability, though many of them slightly, on these decisions, even on the call to send Carlson out for a 49-yard field goal when down 10 points at the two-minute warning. Of course, Carlson’s boot didn’t come close.
Ulbrich had more reasons than his stated “just being aggressive” justification in his postgame press conference. He probably didn’t want to say that he knew that his defense was going to be in for a struggle with star defensive lineman Quinnen Williams unable to go due to a hamstring injury. Tackling Rams running back Kyren Williams, who amassed 122 yards on 23 carries, was problematic, so the game plan was to minimize possessions and not to surrender the ball unless absolutely necessary, lest you put stress on a wounded defense.
That mission was accomplished, but in the end, the Jets added another notch on their infamy belt by becoming just the second team since 1940 to score single digits in a game they never punted, according to ESPN’s Rich Cimini. Unfortunately, the plays that really decided the game, like the Adams drop in the end zone before halftime and the Rodgers strip-sack fumble that preceded the Rams’ 21-yard go-ahead touchdown drive early in the fourth quarter, will be overshadowed by the heat that will be on Ulbrich.
At his point, however, who cares? The game was meaningless except for in the inverse standings in the Tankathon race for positions at the 2025 NFL Draft (the Jets will remain in the 8th slot pending the late contests) and Ulbrich will himself be history after two more games.