2024 Jets Predictions: Beware High Expectations
As the NFL season has inched towards Week 1, I have noticed that the hype surrounding the Jets, which had been relatively muted when compared with last season’s “Hard Knocks”-abetted cacophony, has started to ratchet up.
Of course, last season all came crashing down on the Jets just four plays into the opener when star quarterback Aaron Rodgers ruptured his Achilles and was lost for the remainder of the campaign, offering further evidence as to what happens whenever expectations surrounding this tortured franchise reach for the stars.
Yet here we go again. I keep hearing that everything is amazing—Rodgers looks great (he hasn’t been allowed to be hit since the injury and turns 41 in December), the roster is loaded (what happens if wide receiver Garrett Wilson gets hurt or if Haason Reddick’s holdout diminishes what was an outstanding pass rushing d-line?), and even that Head Coach Robert Saleh learned a thing or two from last season’s 7-10 debacle (until he punts on a late-game fourth down because he’s absolutely sure his defense will get him the ball back). I’ve seen a bunch of so-called experts picking Gang Green to capture the AFC East for the first time since 2002. Leave it to bombastic former Jets Head Coach Rex Ryan to predict a Super Bowl title.
Sure, if the stars align, the Jets certainly have the capability to break a 13-year playoff drought and maybe even compete for the division title. The offensive line—ON PAPER—should be much improved and, with that, Rodgers’ combination of elite processing and arm talent should at least make this team watchable on Sundays, as opposed to the dreck that has played QB for nearly all this abysmal interlude.
Still, it would be foolish for any Jets fan to believe that all will go smoothly for 17 games. If you’re not into history, consider the brain trust currently standing behind it all, from the owner to the GM to the coaching staff (at least on offense). From my perspective, they don’t inspire confidence.
And understand this: The AFC is a juggernaut. The anticipated “easy portion” of the Jets’ slate is their four-game run following their opener in San Francisco next Monday night. Only it includes a run of three games in 11 days and a trip to London that they elected not to sandwich with a bye for either week.
Las Vegas is basically begging bettors to go with the over on 9.5 Jets wins. I think they’re on to something. Here’s some other predictions for the 2024 Jets:
1) Rodgers under 26.5 touchdown passes
Even in the pass-heavy modern era, the only Jets QB to toss 30 touchdown passes in one season was Ryan Fitzpatrick in 2015. In his heyday in Green Bay, Rodgers did it eight times, most recently during his 2021 MVP campaign. The last two seasons, however, have been injury-riddled. Given the above, I foresee some Tyrod Time, as in backup QB Tyrod Taylor. If Rodgers makes it through even 15 games and averages 1.5 TDs per game, that’s still gets you the under.
2) Breece Hall tops NFL in yards gained from scrimmage
Imagine your Jets Offensive Coordinator Nathaniel Hackett. You lose Rodgers for the year on the first series. Your backup plan is Zach Wilson, who is now QB3 in Denver behind rookie Bo Nix and the immortal Jarrett Stidham. In order to move the ball, you must find ways to get your best skill position weapons the ball in space, right? Nah, the Jets’ offense for much of the season consisted of a bunch of dives into the middle of the line followed by dropbacks on obvious passing downs. Then it suddenly dawned on Hackett: Maybe Hall, who is a threat to take every touch in space to the house, should get more involved in the passing game. Who knew? Through the first 10 weeks last season, Hall was targeted 31 times, tied for 15th most in the league for running backs, catching 26 for 246 yards and a fantastic 50-yard catch-and-run touchdown versus the Giants. After Hackett’s light bulb was lit (Hall’s ramp up following 2022 ACL surgery only partially explains Hackett’s initial ignorance), Hall went on to receive 59 targets, which he turned into 50 catches for 345 yards and three touchdowns—all NFL highs at his position during that span. That second-half run enabled him to finish fourth in the league in total yards from scrimmage, with only San Francisco’s Christian McCaffrey ahead of him among RBs. This is the year to be all-in on Hall.
3) No Jet reaches double-digit sacks
After a two-year stretch where a Jet pass rusher reached at least 10 sacks to end a six-season drought, Gang Green regresses in 2024. Reddick, who boasts the fifth-most sacks in the league over the last three seasons, may or may not report versus opting for the Le’Veon Bell career suicide path, but even if he shows up, a combination of factors (Saleh’s heavy d-line rotation, especially early in the season to make up for Reddick’s lost training camp, a substandard run defense, opponents game-planning to get balls out quicker, and the loss of Bryce Huff, New York’s sack leader last season with 10, in free agency) will conspire to limit individual sack totals.
4) Sauce Gardner catches the ball
Gardner is extension eligible after the season. As an elite NFL cornerback, he’ll want to get paid commensurately. He said as much in an interview last month. While only two other corners defended more passes than him over his first two NFL seasons, he’d certainly help his case if some of those turned into interceptions in 2024. After picking off a pair during his rookie campaign, Gardner went through 16 games without one. You can argue that opposing QBs prefer to look in any direction where Gardner isn’t roaming in the vicinity, but he certainly had interception opportunities—per ProFootballFocus.com, only Jacksonville’s stone-handed corner Darious Williams had more than Gardner’s three drops last season. Since Gardner should be very motivated to maximize his earning potential, I see him beating the 1.5 over/under interception prop posted by FanDuel.
5) The Jets split their Division games
Over the last five seasons, Gang Green is a woeful 6-24 versus their AFC East competitors. Two of the victories, including last season in New England, were end-of-season throwaways. If they have designs on the Division flag, that winning percentage will certainly have to be reversed. And I don’t see it happening. To those that depict Buffalo and Miami as in some sort of epic decline, that’s a bit premature. The Bills and Dolphins are both superiorly coached, with Miami’s speed posing a problem for every team, not just the Jets. And that will include the season finale at what should be a frigid MetLife Stadium. Bills quarterback Josh Allen always seems to have one turnover fest and one dominating performance against New York. As for the Patriots, yeah, they’re going to suck with a new HC/QB combo, but you’re telling me that the Jets putting up a stinker in one of the two meetings is inconceivable? You haven’t been paying attention.
2024 Prediction: 9-8