2022-23 Nets Season Preview and Predictions: Relying On The Unreliable
Any time a single NBA team can claim talents as transformational as Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, there is always hope that this will be the year where the club puts it all together and makes a run to a championship.
The 2022-23 Nets, however, are a team that can go in a variety of directions following last season’s disappointing 44-38 campaign that ended with an ignominious sweep in the first round of the playoffs by Boston and a tumultuous offseason highlighted by Durant’s trade request/rescission and Irving’s failure to sign a contract extension. Sure, no one would be surprised if Brooklyn played to its max potential this season and made a deep playoff run. Also, there are probably more people who predict that the Nets will either remain as an Eastern Conference play-in candidate--or worse, fall apart amidst dissension and then blow the whole thing up.
That’s because the Nets are forced to rely on unreliable players—and by that I’m not merely referencing Irving’s habit of finding ways to not play regular season games or Ben Simmons’ struggles with his mental health. How many players in Head Coach Steve Nash’s 10-man rotation haven’t had severe injuries that forced them to miss at least 25 games within the last two seasons? I’m counting Royce O’Neale and guards Patty Mills and Seth Curry, the latter of whom will sit out at least Wednesday’s season opener versus visiting New Orleans while continuing his rehab from offseason ankle surgery. Maybe include Day’Ron Sharpe in the current mix (until General Manager Sean Marks figures out how to add a floor-spacing five) and that’s only because he got called on to play just 32 games as a rookie last season. That’s it.
Even KD, who has been nothing but brilliant when he takes the court, has suited up for just 90 of Brooklyn’s 154 games over the last two seasons, not counting the entire 2019-20 season where he took a sabbatical to recover from Achilles surgery.
It’s hard to make predictions when there’s just so many questions surrounding this team, from Simmons’ fit to Nash’s grip on his job. Well, I’m here to share the answers I gleaned from my crystal ball:
1) A fully-loaded Nets rotation looks like:
Starters: Durant, Irving, Simmons, Nic Claxton, Joe Harris
Reserves: O’Neale, Curry, Mills, Markieff Morris, T.J. Warren
Injury fill-ins: Sharpe, Cam Thomas, Yuta Watanabe, Kessler Edwards, Edmond Sumner
Two-way players: David Duke Jr., Alondes Williams
Obviously, this is a fluid proposition due to injuries. In addition to Curry, Harris and Warren will be out for the opener, meaning Sharpe, Thomas and Watanabe will likely be on call and O’Neale vaults into the starting five. Warren is a true wild card, since his injured foot isn’t even expected to be “reevaluated” until November. Then comes the ramp-ups, the 5-on-5s, the inevitable setbacks…you get the picture. However, if the Nets can a version of Warren at any point that is anywhere close to Bubble GOAT Warren from the 2020 COVID-19 restart, that would plug a huge hole of scoring forward off the bench.
Marks, though, still has the center position to fortify. Ergo…
2) Prior to the February 9 trade deadline, the Nets send Curry, Sharpe, Thomas, and a first-round pick to Orlando for Mo Bamba
Marks has to make an all-in move this season. The Nets have improved, but are they really better than their competition, especially considering the floor-spacing issues created by Simmons that will be amplified in the playoffs? Bamba, who signed a 2-year, $20.6 million contract extension to remain in Orlando in July, cannot be traded until January. As a seven-footer who converted 38.1% of his three-pointers last season, he will be in high demand if put on the market. The Magic will likely prioritize first-round picks, and since the Nets’ supply of those is limited, I included both Thomas and Sharpe, 2020 first-rounders who showed NBA potential as rookies, in the package.
For those who argue it’s too much, I’m sorry, it has to get done. The title window is closing fast. Who knows what will happen next offseason if the Nets fall short (or, heaven forbid, well short) of their high expectations?
Marks has said that he’s willing to give Claxton and Sharpe time to see how a second non-shooter fits with a Simmons-led group. Bamba’s contract extension provides that time. By the deadline, though, it should be obvious that the Nets need help.
3) The Big 3 each play over 65 games
That might not seem like a total to celebrate, but given that KD and Kyrie have played just 44 games together in three years and Simmons, coming off microdiscectomy surgery, hasn’t taken the floor for a real NBA game in 16 months, it’s not too shabby. There will be aches and pains plus load management along the way, but for the most part, Marks will achieve his goal to have his guys available.
4) Simmons finishes in the top 6 of the league in assists per game
The computer algorithm spat out the following stat line for Simmons this season: 11.2 points, 7.6 boards, and 9.4 assists per game, with a 51/12/44 shooting split. His value, as was always anticipated, is in his ability to defend multiple positions and his passing. Every time he feeds KD and Kyrie for a spot-up jumper, ka-ching, another assist is tacked on. James Harden, who Marks dealt to Philadelphia in exchange for a package that included Simmons, averaged over 10 assists a game as a Net—and that’s while attempting over 16 field goals per game. Simmons won’t be nearly as aggressive given his, um, reluctance to shoot. Again, if the Nets can swing a move for a floor-spacing center, they can live with Simmons’ poor marksmanship.
5) Nash survives the season
I trashed last year’s crystal ball that showed Nash exiting Brooklyn in a mutual decision after last season’s hellfire. It may be disappointing to some, but the new one depicts the third-year head coach on the sidelines in the playoffs. The addition of assistant Igor Kokoskov puts a little creativity into the offense and Simmons’ versatility solves a lot of the defense and rebounding woes.
Nash’s game management won’t be as much of an issue in the regular season, but his communication skills will be put to the test when he attempts to find enough playing time for his small redundant shooters Curry and Mills. Of course, it’s possible that injuries rear its ugly head again and the situation resolves itself.
Regular season prediction: 49-33 (fourth seed)