Will Jack Hughes Save This Devils Season? (And Other Predictions)
Making predictions for the Devils has been my fool’s errand over the last few seasons. Who, for instance, foresaw New Jersey, which had endured mostly miserable hockey for about a decade, rising up to set a franchise record in points and winning a playoff series in 2022-23? And then the follow up was just as shocking, with last season going off the rails before Thanksgiving en route to a reversion to another bottom-ten lottery finish.
What’s in store for 2024-25? Probably somewhere in the middle, with the Devils in the hunt for a postseason berth through to the final week.
The variable is Jack Hughes, the face of this franchise. An electric skater and play driver, the injury-riddled forward must be close to full strength for at least 70-75 games to save this Devils season. Which means that every time that historically-battered shoulder slams into the boards, Devils fans will be crossing their fingers.
For the Devils are no longer the turbo-charged speed skaters across four lines from two seasons ago. They are going to be overly reliant on their top two trios centered by Hughes and Nico Hischier to provide the bulk of the scoring. Hughes in particular is going to feel the pressure to carry the team on many nights, probably to the tune of a 100-point season. The power play will ride or die with his puck management.
Make no mistake, this is General Manager Tom Fitzgerald’s vision. He went out this offseason and brought in big defensemen and bangers who fit his “hard to play against” agenda, skill be damned. Depth scoring is going to be an issue. Fitzgerald has said he is not worried about his team’s offense; Devils fans should be.
Meanwhile, new Head Coach Sheldon Keefe hasn’t had much time to implement his system, what with New Jersey’s regular season starting early with two games versus Buffalo in Prague this weekend. A pair of top four defensemen (Luke Hughes and Brett Pesce) aren’t on the trip due to injuries and goalies Jacob Markstrom and Jake Allen might not have shed the offseason rust due to limited preseason reps. The regular season lineup skaters have participated in no more than three exhibitions, with several of the higher-profile vets, including Jack Hughes, logging just one.
Which leads me to the first of my 2024-25 Devils predictions:
1) The Devils will stumble out of the gate
My crystal ball projects 10 points over their first 12 games before they head out for their Western Canada road trip. It’s not that the schedule is rough—half the games are against teams that missed last season’s playoffs. But recall how many times New Jersey stumbled over what should have been classified as lesser competition last season. Can you call Utah a gimme when they beat the Devils in both meetings in 2023-24? Between the injuries and the learning curve, fans are going to have to be patient through the early labor pains.
2) The Devils will finish in the top ten in hits
Not that this statistic is always a measuring stick, for it can mean that your team is chasing the puck too often instead of possessing it. However, the Devils have been on the opposite extreme the last two seasons, finishing 29th and 26th, respectively, among the 32 teams in total hits. You can tell that Fitzgerald gnashed his teeth when speaking of such softness, which led him to signing defenseman Brendan Dillon (11th in total hits last season) and trading for forward Paul Cotter (17th) in the offseason specifically to fulfil this purpose.
3) The goaltending will be…average
On one hand, this is a step up in New Jersey. How often have we heard that all that held this team back in the past few years was putrid goaltending? “Just get to around average,” they’d say, and the Devils will break through their mediocrity. That’s what happened two seasons ago. But that was also a different team composition. The veteran Markstrom/Allen tandem will register the underlying metrics, including the basics like save percentage and the more analytical high danger shot save percentage, to keep the Devils in more games than in past seasons. But will average be good enough this time?
4) Four Devils will earn berths on 4 Nations Face-Off rosters
In lieu of All-Star weekend, the NHL is giving teams about two weeks off in February while the stars from four nations—the United States, Canada, Sweden, and Finland—compete in a contrived tournament. Russia was notably not invited. In grander events like the Olympics, the top players typically are eager to play—and play hard—for their countries while the teams begrudgingly accept that this is part of business. I’m not sure how the stakeholders feel about this one, what with the Stanley Cup tournament two months away. The injury risk will play a factor in who goes to Montreal and Boston. Assuming everyone is on board, look for Jack Hughes (USA), Jesper Bratt (Sweden), Markstrom (Sweden), and Erik Haula (Finland) to earn roster berths.
5) The Devils will be relatively quiet at the trade deadline
I see the Devils in more of a playoff limbo position, forcing Fitzgerald to make a judgement between whether to be a buyer, like when he swiped Timo Meier from San Jose two seasons ago, or a seller, as he’s aggressively been for most of his tenure. The Devils salary cap situation is more complicated these days, with puckpedia.com reporting a little under $1 million in 2024-25 cap space and Luke Hughes and Simon Nemec due for restricted free agent raises over the next two offseasons. A trade deadline rental would have to be awfully good and the Devils already in a playoff seed for it to be worth it for Fitzgerald to expend Draft capital. As for potential selling should the Devils fall off another cliff, they don’t have any Tyler Toffoli types on expiring contracts who will command a bidding war this year. Maybe they could get late-round picks for bottom-level guys like Allen, Curtis Lazar, Tomas Tatar, Nathan Bastian, and/or Johnathan Kovacevic. I just don’t think they’ll be that far out or in where major moves make sense.
2024-25 Prediction: 42-32-8, 92 points (just miss playoffs); Hughes 38 goals, 53 assists, 91 points.