Saleh’s Aversion To Analytics Brings A Yellow Flag To Strong Jets Start
On their first possession of Sunday’s second half versus visiting New England, the Jets crossed midfield and were looking to add to their 14-3 lead.
With a new set of downs, Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers, as is his custom, took his time surveying the Patriots defense. The play clock, however, sets limits as to how much time is allowed, and Rodgers blew past it.
Whistles galore. Head Coach Robert Saleh beat the yellow flag that would have dinged the Jets with a five-yard delay of game penalty by burning one of his three allotted second half timeouts. Long-time New York Post beat writer Brian Costello, who has seen this scenario play out ad nauseum over the years, tweeted, “Third quarter timeout. Drink.”
Three plays later, after Rodgers completed a pass to get the Jets a first down at the Patriots 16-yard line, it happened again. Costello: “A second third quarter timeout! Drink more.”
That the Jets went on to score on that drive en route to a 24-3 rout of their lowly AFC East rivals is irrelevant. This is the second consecutive week where Saleh has had to waste two of what potentially could have been valuable timeouts before the usual game stretch where clock-stopping ability becomes critical.
And Saleh seems unconcerned about it, which should make Jets fans a little anxious despite the euphoria over Rodgers and the 2-1 start.
There can be several reasons why this keeps happening, including Offensive Coordinator Nathaniel Hackett being late in getting the play call to Rodgers, personnel changes dawdling to the huddle, or players not lined up properly.
Saleh put it all on Rodgers. “It’s gonna be a year-long thing guys,” Saleh said in Friday’s video conference call with the media. “(Rodgers) pushes the envelope with regards to the play clock and we’ve just got to be on it in terms of making sure that we don’t take delay of game penalties unless it’s a 3rd-and-15. There’s going to be occasions where we let it run. But it’s going to be an all-year thing. You’d love for it not to be, but that’s part of his superpower. He likes to analyze the defense…so he can identify pre-snap what the defense is in. So if we have to sacrifice a couple of timeouts for Aaron Rodgers to be at his best, we’re fine with it.”
First of all, Coach Saleh, way to throw your future Hall-of-Fame quarterback who from the early going has been looking like the guy that could save your job under the bus.
And then there’s the false choice. What analysis have you read that concluded that a timeout, particularly an early one in a second half, is less valuable than a five-yard penalty on 1st-and-10? To the contrary, the math seems pretty easy: The league as a whole has averaged between 5.3-to-5.6 yards per play over the last decade. Needing to gain 15 yards over the next three snaps, while less ideal than 10, is hardly a drive-killer.
Particularly when you have Rodgers in your pocket. Sure, when Saleh was saddled with bums like Zach Wilson, et al over his first three seasons in this gig, potentially going backwards five yards might seem like a Sisyphean situation. Last season, only Carolina averaged less than New York’s 4.3 yards per play. Any negative event then felt like a precursor to a punt.
Rodgers’ magnificence when it comes to manipulating defenses and ball placements, however, makes for very few third-down give-up reps. The three times on Sunday before the Jets got up by three scores late in the game when they faced a third down with between 6-10 yards to go, Rodgers picked up all three. You want to argue that it was against the Patriots? Per various analyses, the league typically converts about 36% of all such third-down situations.
Just because the lost timeouts have yet to bite the Jets during the first three weeks of this season doesn’t mean it won’t somewhere down the line. Nearly half of all NFL games come down to the last few minutes, when using timeouts are at their highest value when it comes to win probability added. The amount varies depending on the study, but it’s clear that it’s higher than the lost WPA from a single delay of game penalty, particularly one on a 1st-and-10 earlier in the contest.
Saleh, who has been deservedly praised after his club finished off a challenging three-games-in-11-days stretch with perhaps the best football game this franchise has played in years, has a history of ignoring such analytical concepts—see his past comments about “trusting his defense to get the ball back”, “a race to 20 points”, or “winning third downs.” It’s why I find it more likely that his mindset will end up being more of a hindrance to this team over time that could possibly result in another classic Jets underachievement.
All fans can do is hope that Rodgers’ greatness overcomes any internal obstacle and that the next instance when he doesn’t get a third quarter snap off in time, the Jets just take the darn penalty.