Lining Up A Yankees Playoff Rotation
The Yankees’ sweep of Oakland over the weekend all but ended the race for the American League East crown. With a week to go in the regular season, New York’s magic number to officially clinch is one, as in one more Yankees win or Baltimore loss.
The Bronx Bombers will then be awarded a bye during the Wild Card round, though the final seeding remains to be determined as Cleveland is only 2.5 games behind for home-field advantage rights should the two teams meet at the AL Championship Series. Yankees Manager Aaron Boone told reporters he intends to play his regular lineups and pitchers down the stretch until that outcome is cemented.
Fortunately, the bye will allow Boone to configure his starting pitcher rotation as he sees fit since New York will have five days off between the regular season finale and Game 1 of the AL Division Series on October 5. Still, he’s got a few decisions to make for the middle games on the road, and it just might come down to who has the hot arm this week. Here’s a look at where it stands at the moment:
Game 1—Gerrit Cole
Forget the ups and downs of this season following the reigning Cy Young Award winner’s elbow injury that sidelined him until June 19. The slate will be wiped clean in a week. The Yankees are paying him $36 million to win games in October. When his command is on, his ace stuff makes him one of the few pitchers on this team who can go deep into games, like Friday’s 9-innings of 2-hit ball against the A’s. It was the bounceback outing Cole needed following a 7-1 drubbing by the Red Sox in his prior start. That was the game where he was sailing along through the first three innings when Boone curiously instructed him to intentionally walk Boston’s Rafael Devers with one out and no one on base. All hell broke loose thereafter. The point being that while no pitcher comes with a 100% guaranteed performance warranty, Cole has sometimes been susceptible to losing it on the mound. Still, there won’t be any debate about who gets the ball here.
Game 2—Carlos Rodon
Lefthanded pitchers having postseason success is a Bronx tradition, the better to take away the shorter right field porch at Yankee Stadium. The starter here will surely be a lefty, though the choice isn’t as easy as one would think despite Rodon’s team-leading 16-9 record. Nestor Cortes has the superior ERA, WHIP, and WAR metrics. He could certainly steal it with a strong start on Wednesday versus Baltimore, New York’s most likely opponent in the series. For now, I’m going to stick with my preference for the power pitcher over the more hittable arm, and Rodon’s 10.1 K’s per nine innings this season ranks fourth among qualified AL starters. Rodon has also been a tad bit better than Cortes this month and opponents have hit just .202 against him at home this season. I don’t know that Yankees fans are all that comfortable with either choice. Cortes at least worked out of the bullpen once this season, earning a win over the Cubs on September 7 in Clarke Schmidt’s first game back after missing more than three months with a lat strain,
Game 3---Luis Gil
This slot is also scary, trusting a rookie on the road in what is often a pivotal game. I don’t love that Gil’s control issues can lead him to walk the world, if not merely running up his pitch count. Still, look at what he’s accomplished this season: 15-6, with ERA, WHIP, and K numbers in line with Cole and Rodon. And he hasn’t been intimidated on the road, improving his record to 9-3 after Sunday’s 7-4 victory in Oakland. Two of those wins have come at Baltimore’s Camden Yards, where he allowed one run over 12-plus innings (Note: The O’s raked him at Yankee Stadium on June 20, which was the start of a midseason slump that culminated with last month’s short stint on the IL with a back strain. He has since thrown well over four starts, posting a 2.53 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 9.3 Ks per nine innings.). I keep coming back to the “when in doubt, go with the gas in the playoffs” corollary. Since Gil probably won’t go long, the passed over starters—Cortes, Schmidt, and Marcus Stroman—could easily see opportunities to be saviors in long relief in this game.
Game 4—Cole (but maybe Schmidt?)
If the Yankees are down in the series, 2-1, they can’t save Cole for a do-or-die Game 5 that might never come. He’d be on four day’s rest (barring a Game 1 rainout) instead of his typical five, but this is what playoff teams do in these spots. I can see Boone going to Cole even if it’s a close-out game in New York’s favor, knowing he has Rodon in his pocket and on schedule for the if necessary Game 5 at the Stadium. Boone’s hand might even be forced if he previously called on Schmidt for a heavy pitch count appearance as a reliever. The other advantage of going with Cole here is that, if it works, he’ll have an extra day’s rest when lining up the rotation for the ALCS. It’s nothing against Schmidt, who was on pace for a stellar season before the injury. At the time, he was eighth in the AL in ERA (40 innings minimum). Since his return to the mound, he has surrendered just three earned runs in 15 innings. He’s slated for two more starts this week, including Tuesday’s three-game series opener versus Baltimore. I’ll reserve final judgement until seeing how he fares. If he can build up his pitch count and continue to throw strikes, starting him in Game 4 with a 2-1 lead can be defended.
Game 5—Rodon
And all hands are on deck.