Jets fans know all too well how this team through the years has struggled to handle adversity. Worse, they haven’t handled their relatively few moments of prosperity all that well either.
Gang Green will have an opportunity to reverse that trend when they take their modest two-game winning streak into Sunday’s home tilt versus Denver. They are riding high after a sound performance last week, albeit against the lowly Patriots, with Aaron Rodgers playing again like a top ten quarterback and the defense functioning on all cylinders. The Broncos will come to town with Bo Nix at QB to face a Robert Saleh-coached squad that typically frustrates rookies.
This is exactly the scenario that should scare the living daylights out of Jets fans. A game where they’re expected to win. It won’t have the hype of a home opener on a prime-time Thursday night; the energy for a ho-hum 1pm Sunday affair will have to be manufactured from within.
And while the Broncos and Patriots may share the same 1-2 record, don’t sleep on Denver. The Broncos’ two defeats were to 3-0 clubs (Seattle and Pittsburgh) and they’re coming off an impressive 26-7 victory at previously unbeaten Tampa Bay.
In that game, Nix seemed to get it, as in how to navigate a Sean Payton offense. Equally as impressive as Nix’s nearly 70% accuracy last week was his aversion to negative plays—zero picks or sacks and just one “turnover-worthy throw” as defined by ProFootballFocus.com. When his internal clock ran low, he knew when to take off, rushing 8 times for 49 yards (excluding an end-of-game kneel down). Seven of them went for a first down or a touchdown.
Tampa Bay Head Coach Todd Bowles, as he was wont to do against rookies or otherwise when he used to run the Jets’ sideline, dialed up blitzes on a whopping 60% of Nix’s dropbacks, per PFF. Nix responded by going 16-for-23 for 139 yards. The Broncos’ offensive line, even with their starting right tackle on injured reserve, kept Nix clean, surrendering just two QB hits all game.
According to Jets X Factor, Nix’s expected points added per play when blitzed by the Bucs was still in negative territory, which likely meant a lot of those completions were quick passes that did little damage as opposed to explosive plays. It’s a league-wide trend, per SharpFootballAnalysis.com, as about a quarter of all passes versus blitzes are at or behind the line of scrimmage.
The Jets sometimes have trouble with mobile QBs—If not for a couple of Will Levis mistakes, they could have been in trouble in Tennessee in Week 2. Against New England, Saleh compensated for the loss of starting edge rusher Jermaine Johnson to a season-ending Achilles injury, not to mention Haason Reddick’s continued holdout, by going as blitz crazy (about 40% of New England dropbacks, per PFF) as I’ve seen him over his three-plus seasons at the helm. Thanks to the Patriots’ inept offensive line, the Jets got home seven times and registered 15 QB hits in total. More interesting was that Gang Green produced pressures from 15 different players, including six whom one wouldn’t label a defensive lineman. Pats QB Jacoby Brissett, though, doesn’t have Nix’s escapability, which could pose problems for defenses playing man coverage behind blitzes.
In addition to New York’s blitz designs this week, pay attention as to how the Jets spy Nix—sometimes they move edge rusher Will McDonald IV inside; on other defensive snaps, it’s linebackers Quincy Williams and Jamien Sherwood’s responsibility while in zone coverage. Sherwood is expected to start in the middle in place of C.J. Mosley (toe) for a second consecutive week. The good thing about Sherwood’s play to date is that he has been making his tackles closer to the line of scrimmage whereas Mosley would routinely pile up his tackle count around four yards downfield. However, Sherwood, a safety in college, is more apt to take poor angles on QB scrambles.
I don’t take much stock in “revenge game” motivations as the bad blood between Payton and New York Offensive Coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, who butchered the Broncos HC job two years ago, was resolved with last season’s 31-21 Jets victory in Denver. However, Payton has always been a top-level offensive mind, and Jets fans should be worried he’ll have some counters to whatever the Jets bring on Sunday.
And make no mistake, bringing their “C” game would be dangerous. The Jets may boast a few veterans like Rodgers, tackle Tyron Smith, defensive lineman Solomon Thomas, among others, who have been through the ups and downs of NFL seasons, but most of the core has little experience as to what it’s like to be in this position. Only once in the last six seasons have the Jets been as much as a 7.5-point favorite.
In that 2022 game, the Jets routed the Bears to go to 7-4... and then proceeded to lose their last six games that season.
I think Rodgers will be the difference maker in the end on Sunday, but it will be a nailbiter.
Prediction: Jets 22 Broncos 20
My comments from today’s Jets Way
David’s column was a lot like yours today
David, stole a little of my thunder.
Being a Jet fan since 1963, I can honestly say, “ I’ve seen it all”, “ I’ve experienced it all”.
I saw a thing on Facebook two days ago, the nine scariest amusement park rides in the world, they left one out. The NY Jet fans roller coaster ride.
I may be biased but I don’t think any professional sports franchise has put their fan base through the emotional hell that we Jets fans have endured.
The NY Jet Fan roller coaster is the highest in the world. Many a time, the coaster has slowly brought the fan base to ascend to new emotional highs, Parcells leading the Jets into Denver ( one of the few games that Parcells ever admitted was a lock for his team), Rex’s two ventures into the AFC championship games, Walt Michaels leading the best overall roster into Miami.
While some teams seize the moment, the Jet Roller Coaster cruelly demonstrates the law of gravity, “ what goes up, must go down.
As David pointed out, this is the type of game that the Jets have historically lost.
There is not one poster to the Jets Way who can honestly say that the Jets losing this game hasn’t crossed their minds.
While my next comment might be selfish, it is the truth. This is why Aaron Rodgers was brought in here to play.
All time greats rise to the occasion, people can say whatever they want about him. At this point it doesn’t matter. Rodgers is here to rewrite the Jets history book. He said so himself at his first press conference in Florham Park. He mentioned about adding to the one Super Bowl Trophy that he walked by walking into the building.
Rodgers knows that this franchise is riding on his shoulders, he revels in that thought.
Based on all analytic and statistical information, this is a game that the Jets should have no problem winning but unfortunately their history says there is also a good chance they will lose this game.
But remember one thing numbers don’t win or lose games, players do.
Hopefully Rodgers will get the Jets to rise to the occasion and not be “ The Same Old Jets”.